Thailand may consider importing an additional $32.9 billion worth of American goods to mitigate the negative effects of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. This would involve increasing purchases of aircraft, energy, and grains from the United States, according to Maybank, based in Kuala Lumpur.
If imports from Thailand to the U.S. remain stable, Thailand would need to buy this additional amount in U.S. goods to reduce the trade deficit ratio to 20% and lower reciprocal tariffs to a baseline of 10%, explained Chak Reungsinpinya, managing director and head of research at Maybank Securities (Thailand).
“We believe the Thai government could engage in negotiations with the U.S. government to commit to purchasing more American energy, grain, and aircraft. This move would significantly reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Thailand and could lead to lower reciprocal tariffs, based on how they are calculated,” he noted.
Thailand is already importing substantial and increasing amounts of oil, gas, and grains for animal feed. The country’s flagship airline, Thai Airways International, has committed to acquiring 45 Boeing 787-9 jets, with an option for an additional 35, scheduled for delivery starting in 2027.
Given the high costs associated with the 787-9 jets, the purchase of 45 jets may total approximately $13.5 billion, potentially around $10 billion after discounts, added Mr. Chak.
Thailand currently imports $33 billion worth of crude oil, with only 11% sourced from the U.S. Additionally, Thailand imports $13 billion in natural gas and $5.2 billion in grains, of which the U.S. only supplies 6% of natural gas imports and 10% of grain imports.
“The importation of energy is expected to grow as local production declines. If Thailand can commit to buying more oil, gas, and grain from the U.S., it could significantly help reduce the U.S. trade deficit and facilitate lower tariffs,” he explained.
According to Maybank, the reciprocal tariff is set at half of the U.S. deficit ratio. Any country reporting less than a 20% ratio or with a trade deficit with the U.S. faces a baseline tariff of 10%. Thailand currently bears a 36% reciprocal tariff, which is notably high for Asian countries, with only Cambodia and Vietnam facing steeper tariffs.
Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia are expected to be less affected by these tariffs, as suggested by Maybank.
In terms of sectors, Maybank does not anticipate any clear beneficiaries from Trump’s tariffs. “Many sectors could encounter significant challenges. Those that may experience a slowdown in exports or increased competition from imports include electronics, automotive, and petrochemicals,” Mr. Chak stated.
Furthermore, banks, finance, and commerce could face adverse impacts due to a less favorable economic growth outlook. Ultimately, the imposed tariffs could render the “China+1” trade strategy either temporarily or permanently irrelevant, adversely affecting industrial estate operators, Mr. Chak concluded.
