Thai rice exports are projected to fall below 8 million tonnes next year due to various risk factors affecting their competitiveness. These include insufficient research and development (R&D) for rice varieties, an increase in global supply, and the potential lifting of rice export restrictions by India at the end of the year.
Charoen Laothamatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, indicated that rice exports next year are now anticipated to be less than the previously estimated 8.2 million tonnes.
Several risk factors threaten Thai rice exports for the upcoming year, particularly a 1.4% rise in global rice stocks, reaching approximately 528 million tonnes due to increased rainfall for cultivation from the La Niña weather phenomenon. Other challenges include limited R&D on rice varieties leading to lower yields per rai compared to other major rice-exporting nations such as Vietnam, India, and China, rising production costs, and the potential for India to lift its export restrictions on non-basmati white rice by year-end.
Thailand needs to revise its rice policy to stay aligned with shifts in global market demand, particularly the increasing preference for soft-textured rice. Additionally, greater investment in R&D is needed to enhance yields and boost competitiveness in the global market.
Vietnam has adapted its rice export policy by importing inexpensive rice from India for local consumption and focusing on developing high-quality rice varieties for export, such as fragrant rice and soft-textured rice, which command higher prices and added value.
If Thailand does not take appropriate measures, its share of the global rice export market may diminish, with China potentially becoming the world’s leading rice exporter due to advancements in rice varieties and modern farming technologies, as many countries pivot toward self-sufficiency policies.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture, India is expected to remain the largest rice exporter worldwide in 2025, with exports projected to reach 18 million tonnes, followed by Thailand (7.5 million tonnes), Vietnam (7.5 million tonnes), and Pakistan (5.6 million tonnes).
Chookiat Ophaswongse, an honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, expressed confidence that rice exports will meet the Commerce Ministry’s target of 8.2 million tonnes. If exports average 700,000 tonnes per month, the target could potentially be exceeded, reaching 9 million tonnes valued at over US$5.3 billion, driven by ongoing demand from major export markets, including the Philippines and Indonesia, which are expected to increase their rice imports to as much as 4.7 million tonnes and 4.3 million tonnes, respectively.
Nevertheless, close attention must be paid to India’s rice policy, as adjustments to export restrictions may occur following an increase in rainfall from the monsoon, leading to standard stock levels of 140 million tonnes. Such developments could significantly impact global rice exports, as Indian rice is typically less expensive than that from other exporting countries.
