Gold Prices Poised for $4,000 in the Medium Term Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Falling Interest Rates, Say Traders
Gold prices are projected to continue rising toward $4,000 an ounce over the medium term, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and a global shift toward lower interest rates, according to trader YLG Bullion and Futures.
YLG forecasts that international gold prices could reach approximately $3,700 per ounce by the second half of 2025, potentially climbing to $4,000 within 3 to 5 years. Domestically, gold is expected to hit a peak of around 57,000 baht per baht-weight, up from the record high of 53,000 baht recorded earlier this year.
“Various global uncertainties continue to support demand for gold,” remarked YLG CEO Tipa Nawawattanasub. She pointed to ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war, escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and volatile US-China relations as factors that reinforce gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.
Ms. Tipa also noted that if U.S. President Donald Trump remains in office, unpredictability in policies, including potential tariffs, could further impact financial markets. While recent discussions between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hint at possible easing of trade tensions, she emphasized that interest rate trends are likely to have a more significant influence on gold’s future pricing.
YLG expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates twice this year, with additional cuts possibly in 2026 due to continued economic softness. Such rate cuts are seen as positive for gold prices. Supporting this outlook is the increasing acquisition of gold by central banks, which are also repatriating their reserves — a sign of growing concern over global financial instability, YLG added.
GCAP Gold Co Ltd, another market participant, highlighted the heightened volatility in gold markets, largely fueled by fluctuating US trade policies. Trump’s recent decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, further strained international trade relations. Additionally, the ongoing legal disputes in the US over import duties have added to market uncertainty.
Investors are closely watching a forthcoming trade meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, though Trump has suggested that reaching an agreement will be “very difficult.” The US labor market could also influence gold prices; weak employment data may boost gold if traders expect additional Federal Reserve easing.
GCAP predicts that while near-term prices may remain range-bound, recent developments in US tariffs could provide short-term upward momentum. Conversely, downside risks are limited to around $3,300 an ounce (roughly 51,200 baht locally), with expectations of gradual price recovery.
Both YLG and GCAP advise accumulating gold during price dips, given the long-term bullish outlook. “Gold remains a key strategic asset for navigating a world full of geopolitical and economic uncertainties,” Ms. Tipa concluded.
