The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Thailand’s GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.9%, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous estimate, while maintaining a 3.1% growth forecast for the following year.
In its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF sustains the global economic growth projection at 3.2% for this year and adjusts it to 3.3% for next year, with modifications in individual country forecasts. The report cites a decrease in the growth outlook for the United States to 2.6% for this year, alongside raised forecasts for China to 5% and India to 7%, indicating a moderate global economic growth trajectory over the upcoming years.
The IMF highlights concerns about decelerating inflation trends and the potential impact on the strength of the US dollar and emerging economies. However, it acknowledges an uptick in global trade volumes propelled by robust exports from Asia.
The latest IMF World Economic Outlook Update, titled “The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot” (imf.org), underscores Asia’s emerging market economies as the primary driver of global economic growth. The heightened growth forecasts for India and China are identified as significant contributors to nearly half of the global growth outlook.
Looking ahead, the report projects a subdued outlook for the next five years, largely attributed to waning momentum in emerging Asian economies. It anticipates China’s growth rate to decelerate to 3.3% by 2029, a substantial decline from its current pace.
The US economy indicates signs of cooling, while the euro area is expected to witness an upturn. Concerns persist regarding escalating inflation rates and fiscal challenges. Elevated services prices and wages may lead to sustained inflation levels above desired targets, necessitating a more direct approach in addressing fiscal hurdles and meeting evolving spending requirements.
There is mounting apprehension surrounding the gradual erosion of the multilateral trading system, as more countries resort to unilateral measures that could distort trade dynamics and undermine global growth. The report emphasizes the crucial need to sustainably enhance growth prospects through effective resource allocation, educational advancements, innovation, and robust policy frameworks. It underscores the significance of constructive multilateral collaboration in fostering a stable and prosperous economic environment for all stakeholders.
