The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) has revised its export growth forecast for Thailand in 2024 to 5% following a strong performance in December.
According to TNSC chairman Chaichan Charoensuk, Thai exports in December are estimated to have increased by over 4.5%, exceeding expectations. This positive outcome is attributed to effective collaboration among various sectors.
Looking ahead, TNSC anticipates modest export growth of 1-3% for 2025. However, the council has identified several key risks that warrant careful consideration.
The potential for trade tensions during the second term of U.S. President Donald Trump could introduce uncertainty in trade policy, which may have both positive and negative effects on the global and Thai economies, the TNSC noted.
Additionally, U.S. stimulus programs—such as increased domestic investment and corporate tax cuts—might lead to an overheating of the American economy, rising inflation, and a possible reduction in the Federal Reserve’s projected interest rate cuts from four to two within this year.
The potential easing or removal of stringent environmental regulations globally could further complicate trade relationships.
Mr. Chaichan cautioned that geopolitical tensions, including territorial disputes in the South China Sea, ongoing military confrontations, extended conflicts in the Middle East, and the Russia-Ukraine war all constitute additional risks.
Currency fluctuations, particularly in the baht due to domestic inflation and U.S. trade policies, are also a source of concern.
Exporters face the challenge of rising labor costs, which impacts production and logistics, he added. Moreover, volatility in global oil and energy prices, along with increased freight rates stemming from heightened exports to the U.S. and ongoing issues in the Red Sea affecting exports to the EU and the Middle East, pose further challenges.
“Thailand achieved positive export results in 2024, but this year, exporters will face more difficult conditions,” stated Mr. Chaichan.
“We project export growth of 1-3% in the first quarter as momentum remains positive. However, it is essential to monitor developments in the second quarter after Trump’s inauguration on January 20.”
Key export products expected to drive growth this year include food and electronic components, although there are concerns regarding the performance of rice, cassava, automobiles, and auto parts.
To support exports, the council recommends quarterly joint committee meetings between the public and private sectors under the Commerce Ministry to address trade volatility.
The government should also increase funding for trade activities with both major trading partners and emerging markets to minimize trade risks and alleviate market distortions resulting from U.S. trade measures, according to the TNSC.
These initiatives aim to help Thailand achieve export growth of 2-3% this year.
