Thai Lion Air predicts a stagnant Chinese market this year due to declining safety confidence in Thailand and a sluggish mainland economy throughout 2025. CEO Aswin Yangkirativorn indicated that safety concerns during the upcoming Lunar New Year could lead to a 20% drop in the Chinese market, though this decline is expected to be temporary.
As of January 15, at least 40 charter flights from China were canceled for the holiday period starting later this month, and new bookings from independent travelers are also decreasing. The long-term outlook suggests that economic stagnation from the previous year will result in an average load factor of only 50% for Chinese routes, compared to a 70% load factor for all international routes in 2024.
Nuntaporn Komonsittivate, the head of commercial at Thai Lion Air, noted that before the pandemic, flights to China were primarily filled with Chinese passengers. However, following the introduction of a permanent visa scheme in March, Thai passengers made up 50% of the market last year. The airline aims to maintain its six routes to China, focusing on Thai travelers, while also expanding to other promising markets, particularly India, where it has increased services to seven cities since 2024—surpassing its operations in China.
The airline plans to acquire 14 new aircraft this year, including Boeing 737-800 and 737-900 models. In the first quarter, at least four aircraft will be imported to meet rising demand during the Songkran holiday, with new routes planned in the first half of the year, such as direct flights to Bali, Okinawa via Kaohsiung, and Nagoya via Taipei, with each route offering four flights per week.
Mrs. Nuntaporn stated that existing routes will also be reinforced with additional services, including increasing flights to Jakarta from once daily to twice daily, along with adding more seats on some domestic routes. This approach aims to alleviate high airfare costs caused by limited capacity amid high demand. In 2025, she projected that average airfares for domestic flights would remain stable at around 1,200 to 1,500 baht.
She mentioned that low-cost carriers in Thailand are unlikely to raise their fares, as the acceptable rate for domestic passengers is capped at no more than 1,500 baht. Thai Lion Air anticipates an average load factor of 57% for international routes and 85% for domestic routes this year. Last year, the airline served 6 million passengers, less than half of the 13 million passengers carried in 2019.
“For the Thai aviation sector, we witnessed a strong recovery in 2023, and the momentum has continued positively into 2024, allowing us to plan a significant fleet expansion this year,” stated Mrs. Nuntaporn.