Thai Rice Exports Drop Sharply in Q1, Raising Global Market Concerns
Thailand’s rice exports have plummeted in the first quarter of 2025, with a 30% overall decline and a 53% year-on-year drop in 15% white rice, sparking fears that the country may lose its standing as the world’s second-largest rice exporter to Vietnam.
According to Chukiat Opaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, Thailand shipped only 2.1 million tonnes of rice in Q1, compared to 2.4 million tonnes by India and 2.3 million tonnes by Vietnam.
Chukiat noted that even though Thai rice prices have dropped to around US$400 per tonne, Indian rice is roughly US$40 cheaper, making it more attractive to buyers in South Africa, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
He warned that while India is projected to export over 20 million tonnes of rice this year, Thailand may manage only 7.5 million tonnes, a figure that could be revised mid-year depending on market conditions.
In the U.S. market, Chukiat highlighted the impact of 36% reciprocal tariffs on Thai rice exports, including Hom Mali rice. Importers in the U.S. may try to stockpile supplies during a 90-day tariff suspension. Currently, the U.S. imports around 1.3 million tonnes of fragrant rice annually, including 630,000 tonnes of Hom Mali from Thailand.
In the first quarter alone, Thailand exported over 200,000 tonnes of Hom Mali to the U.S. at an average price of US$1,000 per tonne. However, if tariffs are enforced, prices could soar to US$1,200–1,300 per tonne, plus a 10% basic tax, severely impacting competitiveness.
Charoen Laothammatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, also warned of an upcoming increase in shipping costs, expected to rise by US$6 per tonne by October, adding further pressure on exporters.
