A coalition of Thai industry leaders anticipates that the planned reciprocal tariffs from the United States will diminish Thailand’s GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.6 percentage points this year, keeping the growth forecast between 2.4% and 2.9%.
After the recent meeting of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), Tawee Piyawatana, vice-chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, indicated that they are awaiting the US’s announcement of these measures, expected on April 2.
He mentioned that the private sector is collaborating with relevant government agencies to prepare for potential uncertainties.
“Initially, we expect the US tariffs to lower Thai GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.6 percentage points from previous forecasts. We will monitor the actual effects and adjust our growth projections accordingly, considering the softer economic outlook and ongoing uncertainties,” stated Mr. Tawee.
Thailand is viewed as vulnerable due to its significant tariff disparities and trade surplus with the US, particularly affecting its export-driven industries such as electronics, automotive and auto parts, and petrochemicals, which are likely to experience elevated risks due to the new tariffs.
Furthermore, indirect consequences may arise from key trade partners, notably China, particularly in sectors with strong supply chain links to US markets. There may also be an increase in the flow of Chinese goods into Thailand, along with a potential rise in US exports to Thailand as trade negotiations proceed, according to JSCCIB.
Despite tourism being projected as a significant driver of Thailand’s economic growth this year, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Thailand is forecasted to decline, in tandem with China’s economic slowdown and escalating trade tensions triggered by US tariffs, the panel observed.
In response to last week’s earthquake, Kobsak Duangdee, secretary-general of the Thai Bankers’ Association (TBA), stated that banks have initiated financial assistance measures for affected customers, which include additional credit lines for home repairs and restructuring of debts.
The TBA is working with member banks to ensure further support. For example, banks may coordinate with insurance companies to accelerate claims processing for mortgage holders, granting homeowners quicker access to funds for repairs and improved liquidity, he added.
The private sector views the disaster as an opportunity to enhance the nation’s preparedness and crisis management, according to JSCCIB.
Effective collaboration between government agencies and the private sector is vital, particularly in ensuring access to comprehensive and updated data, the panel emphasized.
In the aftermath of the earthquake, safety inspections of buildings and structures should be prioritized, with results disclosed transparently, as this is crucial for building trust among all stakeholders, including foreign investors and tourists, noted JSCCIB.
