Thailand’s rice exports have surged by 11.9% compared to last year, reaching 5.29 million tonnes from January to August 2023. However, India’s ban on rice exports has caused a global deficit of 10 million tonnes, leading to a 15-year high in rice prices across Asia. Thailand has set a target to export 8 million tonnes of rice this year, but potential drought conditions stemming from El Nino weather patterns may impact next year’s production.
Thailand’s primary rice export markets include Indonesia, Iraq, South Africa, the United States, and China. The global rice price increase is a direct consequence of India’s export restrictions, resulting in a 10 million tonne shortfall.
Myanmar is also planning to curtail its rice exports, while the Philippines is contemplating a rice import agreement with Thailand. Nevertheless, the looming threat of El Nino-induced droughts may affect rice production in Southeast Asia in the upcoming year.
The warmer and drier conditions brought about by an earlier onset of El Nino are anticipated to have adverse effects on rice production in Asia, leading to higher rice prices and potential food shortages. El Nino, a temporary warming of the Pacific Ocean, is intensifying due to climate change, with previous instances resulting in extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. Climate-related factors like floods, droughts, and severe weather are causing a significant shortage in rice production, putting food security and livelihoods at risk as prices rise. The demand for rice is on the rise as populations grow, but the water-intensive nature of rice cultivation makes it particularly susceptible to droughts caused by climate change.
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