The global energy market is anticipated to experience a decline in prices following newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump’s plans to boost domestic oil and gas production, as indicated in the weekly global oil market report from PTT Plc, a national oil and gas conglomerate.
According to the report, global oil production is expected to outpace demand due to Trump’s support for increasing domestic crude oil production. He declared a national energy emergency on his first day in office and signed an executive order aimed at lifting restrictions on US drilling and production.
As of last Friday, US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.5 million barrels per day. Trump’s executive order reversed a measure by former President Joe Biden, thereby opening the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling. The US Geological Survey estimates that this area contains approximately 895 million barrels of crude oil reserves.
Platts, a global supplier of energy information and price assessments, reported that Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports increased by 730,000 barrels per day to 3.8 million barrels per day in the week ending January 19, marking the highest level in seven weeks. While the exact destinations of Russian crude oil exports, totaling 1.35 million barrels per day, were not disclosed, Platts suggests that most shipments are likely going to China and India, accounting for 22% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports in 2024, despite US sanctions on Russian oil tankers.
Data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative showed a 4.7% increase in Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in November from the month prior, reaching 6.21 million barrels per day. Additionally, domestic refineries imported 383,000 barrels per day less than the previous month, resulting in a total of 2.35 million barrels per day. This further indicates a potential decline in energy prices, primarily driven by oil prices.
On a related note, Prasert Sinsukprasert, Thailand’s permanent energy secretary, expressed optimism about lower electricity bills, with the power tariff dropping from 4.15 baht per kilowatt-hour, partly influenced by Trump’s new energy policies. The current power tariff, which applies from January to April, reflects that about 60% of the price per unit comes from fuel tariffs, and approximately 60% of electricity in Thailand is generated using gas.
Poonpat Leesombatpiboon, secretary-general of the Energy Regulatory Commission, stated that Trump’s directives will likely affect not just oil prices but also natural gas prices, considering that the US was the leading exporter of liquefied natural gas and crude oil in 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Additionally, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman held discussions in Riyadh with his Iraqi and Libyan counterparts, Hayan Abdel-Ghani and Khalifa Abdulsadek, to promote stability in global energy markets. OPEC+, which consists of the Saudi-led OPEC and allies like Russia, is scheduled to hold a meeting of its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee on February 3.
Trump has urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, suggesting that doing so could contribute to ending the war in Ukraine. OPEC+ has yet to respond to Trump’s calls, although it already plans to begin increasing oil output in April, gradually rolling back previous cuts that have been stalled due to weak demand.
When asked about Trump’s statements, Saudi Economy Minister Faisal al-Ibrahim emphasized at a panel during the World Economic Forum in Davos that Saudi Arabia and OPEC are committed to achieving long-term stability in the oil market.
