Thailand’s tourism revenue is projected to decline by over 20% in 2025 compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, falling from 1.91 trillion baht to approximately 1.52 trillion baht. This sharper decline exceeds the expected 17% drop in tourist arrivals, suggesting that visitors are spending considerably less during their trips.
The decline in tourism spending is largely attributed to shifts in tourist demographics, including a significant drop in high-spending Chinese visitors and a rise in more budget-conscious travelers. Other contributing factors include the global economic slowdown, a stronger Thai baht, and safety concerns among tourists.
The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) forecasts that international tourist revenue will decrease by over 20% in 2025, reaching about 1.52 trillion baht, down from 1.91 trillion baht in 2019. The expected number of foreign visitors is around 33.14 million, representing a 6.7% decrease from 2024 and a 17% decline from 2019.
A notable trend is that although the number of tourists is decreasing, those who visit are spending much less. The decline in revenue is linked to changing tourist behaviors and patterns, with a significant reduction in high-spending Chinese tourists offset by an increase in Malaysian arrivals. Overall, travelers are seeking better value for money, with a growing number of budget-conscious free independent travelers (FITs) and backpackers.
Economic pressures are also impacting the sector. The TCT’s “Tourism Business Confidence Index” for the third quarter of 2025 stood at 66, indicating that operators nationwide view the current situation as “significantly below normal,” a decline from 68 in the same quarter last year.
Key challenges facing the industry include domestic deflation, the global economic slowdown, a stronger baht, safety concerns, and the ongoing Thai-Cambodia conflict alongside localized flooding. Despite these hurdles, some positive developments include government stimulus measures, recovery in certain niche markets, and increased airline routes and passenger capacity.
The recovery of the industry remains slow and highly volatile. Overall, tourism businesses reported that their average revenue in Q3/2025 was just 44% of 2019 levels, down from a peak of 64% in early 2023. Regionally, the southern areas have shown the most resilience, with average revenues reaching 50% of 2019 levels and occupancy rates at 62%, driven by their popularity as international destinations.
In contrast, Bangkok experienced the most fluctuation, while the northern region recorded the lowest revenue at 39%. Specific segments, such as tour operators and souvenir shops, have faced significant declines, with souvenir shops registering the lowest confidence levels across all surveyed periods, reflecting intense competition and a shift away from high-value purchases.