Amid ongoing tensions between China and Japan, Thailand’s tourism industry is unlikely to experience a sharp increase in Chinese visitors during this peak season, primarily due to limited flight capacity and intense regional competition. Meanwhile, the government has faced criticism for not adequately addressing barriers to tourism growth.
In recent weeks, many Chinese travelers have canceled their plans to visit Japan amid travel advisories issued by China over the diplomatic dispute related to Taiwan. This situation has prompted tourism industries across various countries to compete for this shifting market, as Chinese tourists seek alternative holiday destinations.
Thanapol Cheewarattanaporn, President of the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta), indicated that Thailand may gradually attract more Chinese tourists turning away from Japan and those motivated by positive sentiments following the official visit of Thailand’s monarchs to China last month. However, he emphasized that a sudden surge in Chinese arrivals is unlikely due to limited airline capacity, which will take time to expand.
The Tourism Ministry reports that Thailand welcomed approximately 4.1 million Chinese visitors in the first eleven months of the year. It is estimated that around 500,000 Chinese tourists will visit in December, bringing the total for the year close to 4.5 million.
Chinese travelers who canceled their Japan trips are generally opting for destinations with similar attractions and cooler climates, such as South Korea, rather than Thailand. Regarding the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute that led to evacuations in border provinces, Thanapol noted that while international markets might be mildly affected, travelers who are aware that main tourist cities remain unaffected are unlikely to change their plans. To maintain travel confidence, he suggests the government consistently share accurate information about the situation.
Atta remains optimistic about reaching 9 million Chinese visitors by 2026. Supported by the Tourism Authority of Thailand, over 1,000 charter flights from various Chinese cities are scheduled through mid-2026. Additionally, Atta plans to host a B2B trade fair in January, inviting over 1,200 tourism operators, including 300 Chinese tour operators.
Meanwhile, Thanet Supornsahasrungsi, President of the Chonburi Tourism Federation, expects Chinese tourists in Pattaya during this high season to stay at similar levels compared to last year. He highlighted ongoing issues such as the strong baht against the US dollar and Chinese yuan that deter some foreign visitors. To attract more Chinese travelers, he argues that safety measures alone are insufficient; the government should also innovate with new tourism products and events targeted at independent adventurers and younger generations.
Supakrit Phansomboon, Thailand country manager for SiteMinder, noted that while Thailand remains one of the top overseas destinations for Chinese tourists, it may not benefit immediately from the China-Japan dispute. The latest travel report from SiteMinder ranks Thailand among the top 8 destinations Chinese tourists plan to visit next year.