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Thailand’s leading asset managers are advising investors to increase exposure to gold and oil as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify, while regulators say they are monitoring market stability amid rising volatility.
UOB Asset Management (Thailand) said gold and crude oil prices are likely to remain supported in the near term. However, the outlook will depend on whether energy infrastructure becomes a target, whether Iran attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, and whether China or Russia become more involved in the conflict.
The firm outlined three possible scenarios. In a base case where the conflict is resolved quickly without wider regional escalation, Brent crude could trade between $75 and $80 per barrel, with inflation remaining contained and equity markets experiencing only short-term volatility. In this scenario, investors are advised to hold gold and oil as hedges while selectively buying equities during market weakness.
If the conflict drags on for weeks or disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Brent prices could stay above $80 for several months, raising inflation risks and limiting the US Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. Under this scenario, investors are advised to increase allocations to gold and oil while reducing equity exposure.
In a worst-case scenario involving a broader regional war, oil prices could surge above $100 per barrel, potentially triggering a global economic slowdown. UOBAM said investors should prioritise capital preservation by shifting portfolios towards gold, energy assets and high-quality bonds.
Nuttachart Mekmasin, executive director of research at Trinity Securities, said Thai equities could face pressure as global investors rotate funds into safer assets such as bonds, gold and commodities. While energy-related stocks may benefit in the short term, the upside for the Stock Exchange of Thailand remains limited due to already high valuations.
Meanwhile, CGS International Securities forecasts Thailand’s economic growth at 1.9% this year, noting that domestic demand has been supported largely by stimulus measures while external uncertainties remain.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said it is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on financial markets. Secretary-general Pornanong Budsaratragoon said Thailand’s major exchanges continue to operate normally, adding the regulator stands ready to implement stabilising measures if needed and urged investors to rely on credible information and assess risks carefully.