Advanced Info Service (AIS) announced a total revenue of 52.2 billion baht and a net profit of approximately 8.7 billion baht for the third quarter of this year.
The growth in AIS’s profit and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) can be attributed to more effective cost management, a reduction in capital expenditure for network expansion, decreased market competition—particularly in mobile services—and a boost from the tourism sector, as noted by Pisut Ngamvijitvong, senior vice-president of the securities analysis department at Kasikorn Securities (KS).
KS has adjusted its revenue growth forecast for the overall mobile service market in 2024 from 3% to 4%. The net profit for the entire mobile services market is projected to increase by 118% in 2024, primarily due to a significant reduction in losses for True Corporation.
However, KS predicts that mobile business revenue growth in the overall market may drop to 3.2% in 2025, reflecting increased market saturation.
For major telecom operators’ overall service revenue, which includes mobile and fixed broadband sectors, KS forecasts a 10% expansion in total service revenue for 2024, followed by a 3.5% increase in 2025.
Currently, AIS serves 46.3 million mobile subscribers, with 5G users reaching 11.5 million, marking a 35% year-on-year increase. The company’s 5G intelligence network covers over 95% of the population.
In the broadband sector, AIS 3BB FIBRE3 gained 62,900 new subscribers in the third quarter, raising its total to 4.94 million. The AIS enterprise business experienced a 20% year-on-year growth.
Spectrum Auction Insights
Mr. Pisut expressed concerns that the market appears to be overly complacent regarding uncertainties surrounding the upcoming spectrum auction in 2025.
The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) plans to auction the 850-MHz, 2100-MHz, and 2300-MHz bands as part of a series of spectrum auctions scheduled for the second quarter of next year, prior to August 3—this date marking the expiry of these frequency ranges currently utilized by the state telecom enterprise, National Telecom (NT).
The auction process for other spectrum ranges, including the 1500-MHz and 1800-MHz bands, is also in progress.
NT was formed through the merger of TOT and CAT Telecom. NT collaborated with AIS on the 2100-MHz band through its partnership with TOT, while NT worked with the now-defunct Total Access Communication on the 2300-MHz spectrum.
DTAC and True merged to form True in 2023, and NT has partnered with True Move H Universal Communication on the 850-MHz band through a deal with CAT Telecom.
KS’s base case scenario assumes that AIS and True will receive equal blocks of the 2300-MHz band, each acquiring 35MHz of bandwidth.
Based on these assumptions, KS estimates that AIS will gain approximately 468 million baht (pre-tax) in 2025 and about 1.2 billion baht in 2026 from the transition from NT’s roaming arrangement to the telecom regulator’s licenses.
AIS currently pays 3.9 billion baht annually for its use of the 2100-MHz spectrum under its partnership with NT, whereas True pays 8 billion baht each year to NT under its collaboration, according to Mr. Pisut.
