Boeing predicts that China will require more than 8,000 new aircraft in the next two decades, which would account for 20% of global airplane deliveries. The majority of this demand will be for single aisle narrowbody planes, with over 1,500 widebody aircraft also needed by 2042. The growth of China’s economy and domestic air travel, along with the need to replace older planes, will drive this demand for new aircraft. Boeing remains confident in its forecast for China, emphasizing the necessity for over 8,000 new planes in the coming years.
Boeing’s forecast aligns with Airbus’ projection earlier this year, which also estimated China to account for a significant portion of global aircraft demand. Airbus predicted that China would require 9,440 additional planes, making up 23% of global demand over the next two decades. Both manufacturers anticipate a substantial increase in the Chinese fleet due to the country’s economic growth and rising travel demand.
In Boeing’s analysis, they breakdown the expected demand for new planes in China. They anticipate that out of the 8,560 aircraft, 6,470 will be single aisle narrowbody planes, reflecting the strong demand for domestic travel in the country. Additionally, 1,550 widebody planes, 350 regional jets, and 190 freighters will be delivered to China during this period. Two-thirds of the new planes will support Chinese airlines’ fleet development programs, while the remaining will replace older aircraft, contributing to the reduction of carbon emissions in the aviation sector.
This surge in aircraft demand will also create employment opportunities. Boeing estimates that over 400,000 aviation personnel will be needed to support these aircraft, including 134,000 pilots, 138,000 technicians, and 161,000 cabin crew members. Moreover, maintaining and servicing the new aircraft will drive a demand of $675 billion in aviation services.
Boeing’s forecast for China coincides with its plans to restart deliveries of its 737 MAX aircraft in the country. After a four-year hiatus, Boeing is preparing to resume deliveries as China lifted the ban on the aircraft earlier this year. China Southern Airlines is expected to be the first recipient of the new 737 MAXs in the country. The success of the 737 MAX in China is crucial for Boeing as it heavily relies on the type for its forecasted growth in the Chinese market.
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