Severe flooding in northern Thailand has raised concerns about potential similar damage in the central plains, the core of the nation’s economy, as experts warn of further flooding possibilities in the next 60 days.
Forecasts indicate that Thailand is likely to experience increased torrential rains and storms between September and October, with a heightened risk of “rain bombs” impacting certain regions, according to climate hazard specialist Seree Supratid, who is also the chairman of the executive committee at FutureTales Lab, a research center associated with the property developer Magnolia Quality Development Corporation.
“Rain bombs,” a phenomenon linked to climate change, refer to intense downpours occurring over short periods. Provinces such as Trat and Phuket have recently been affected by this weather event.
In light of the flooding threats, authorities are implementing protective measures for factories, particularly those situated in low-lying areas. Business leaders are urging the government to establish effective water management strategies, even though some believe the current flooding situation is manageable.
PROTECTING PRODUCTION
The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT) is monitoring the floods in the North but is confident that industrial operators have measures in place to mitigate flood damage. The memory of the devastating flood in 2011, which severely impacted areas along the Chao Phraya River, is still fresh in their minds.
“We are concerned about the risk, but we believe flood walls and other precautions will adequately protect our industrial estates from potential flooding,” said Veeris Ammarapala, governor of the IEAT.
The authority oversees 68 industrial estates across 16 provinces and manages a deep-sea port at Map Ta Phut in Rayong.
IEAT officials are tasked with verifying the effectiveness of all preventive measures to ensure the safety of factories, he noted.
“Our alert level on a scale of 1 to 10 is currently between 2 and 3, indicating a low risk,” Mr. Veeris stated.
Special attention will be directed toward industrial estates in Ayutthaya, Bangkok, and the neighboring provinces, as some of these areas were heavily flooded in 2011.
Officials must also enhance flood prevention efforts at the Bhakasa and Bangpoo industrial estates, given that the Chao Phraya River flows through Samut Prakan province. Bhakasa Industrial Estate spans 649 rai, while Bangpoo Industrial Estate covers 5,039 rai.
Mr. Veeris mentioned that the IEAT collaborates with industrial estate operators and port authorities, who have been instructed to report to the IEAT’s environmental quality and safety center in case of an emergency.
He plans to assess the vulnerability of industrial estates to flooding during his visit to an estate in Ayutthaya and will attend an online meeting to discuss flood response operations.
“This is aimed at ensuring confidence in our flood prevention efforts,” Mr. Veeris said.
The IEAT has eased concerns regarding potential flooding at Phichit Industrial Estate, despite possible runoff from inundated Sukhothai province. He clarified that Phichit Industrial Estate is not near any waterways, such as the swollen Yom River, and is surrounded by a flood wall measuring 3.9 meters high, equipped with three pumps to enhance flood protection.
SITUATION STILL ‘MANAGEABLE’
According to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), factories are currently safe from flooding as runoff flows downstream to the Chao Phraya River, and disruptions to goods transport are expected to be temporary.
Recent reports indicate that floods and runoff last week submerged over 471,000 rai of land across several provinces, including Chiang Rai, Phayao, Lamphun, Phrae, Sukhothai, Phichit, Phitsanulok, and Nakhon Sawan, with up to 252,362 rai of farmland affected. However, the latest FTI inspection found that flooding has not yet directly impacted the manufacturing sector.
“Factories operated by FTI members are unaffected by the flooding,” stated Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the FTI, adding that there are relatively few factories in the North.
Logistics in northern provinces have faced some disruptions, delaying the transport of goods on certain routes. However, normal conditions are expected to resume soon, he indicated.
The FTI is currently examining the supply chain for agricultural products and processing facilities to assess any potential indirect effects stemming from the flooding, as stated by Mr. Kriengkrai.
“Our members in rural areas are collaborating with state officials to provide emergency supplies and raise funds for flood victims,” he noted.
Reports suggest that the flooding this year is unlikely to match the severity of the 2011 and 2022 inundations.
In 2011, Thailand experienced five significant storms that led to major runoff along the Chao Phraya River, resulting in widespread destructive flooding in industrial areas.
The average rainfall for that year was 24% higher than normal, according to Surasee Kittimonthon, secretary-general of the Office of the National Water Resources.
Thailand also faced significant flooding in 2022 when Tropical Storm Noru struck, impacting 54 provinces from late September to early October, with an average rainfall exceeding typical levels by 27%—the highest recorded in four decades.
Honda Automobile (Thailand)’s assembly plant in Ayutthaya was among those severely affected in 2011, prompting the company to establish an additional factory in Prachin Buri in the eastern region.
“We believe this year’s floods will not heavily impact the automotive industry, as many factories are located in the East,” said Surapong Paisitpatanapong, vice-chairman of the FTI and spokesperson for its Automotive Industry Club. “Rather, the main concern is the challenge of securing consumer auto loans.”
While the situation appears manageable, Mr. Surapong cautioned that it is premature to conclude that the auto industry will be completely shielded from this year’s flooding.
In October 2022, previous floods negatively affected domestic car sales in several categories, particularly in upcountry regions, although the sales volume of pickups surged by 28.4% year-on-year—a likely reflection of their suitability for navigating floods.
In the parcel delivery sector, Alex Ng, CEO of courier service KEX Express (Thailand) Plc, stated that the company has established protocols for addressing floods in impacted cities or provinces. He noted that the current flooding situation does not seem severe enough to warrant activating a special task force.
KEX Express is managing delivery traffic under regular protocols, but will devise emergency plans should conditions worsen, he added.
COLLABORATION REQUIRED
Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, has called for greater collaboration among state agencies to formulate strategies addressing new flood risks while also ensuring prompt assistance for households impacted by the Northern floods.
The chamber, alongside the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, has conducted a preliminary assessment of flood-related damages, estimating them to reach 4-6 billion baht, or 0.02-0.03% of GDP. Monitoring and reevaluation of these damages are essential, as many provinces remain at risk.
The estimate highlighted that the agricultural sector suffered the most, followed by the service and industrial sectors.
In the short term, the chamber recommends establishing a frontline water management center in flood-prone regions, headed by the prime minister to integrate policies across sectors and ministries.
The government should prepare for flooding risks in the central region and Bangkok over the next two months, given forecasts of increased rainfall, Mr. Sanan stated.
With a clear preventive plan, the potential impacts and damages to both citizens and the economy could be significantly reduced, he emphasized.
Throughout the country, the chamber, via the Commercial Welfare Foundation, has been collecting donations for essential items and distributing them to affected individuals through provincial chambers of commerce.
Various private networks are also providing consumer goods and survival kits to assist those impacted by the floods.
As affected areas recover, the country requires a post-disaster rehabilitation plan designed to revitalize public services and businesses, he stated.
The chamber, along with the Thai Board of Trade, is collaborating with leading modern retail and wholesale operators, including Tops and Thaiwatsadu, to reduce the burden on affected individuals and businesses by organizing campaigns to lower prices on consumer goods, electrical appliances, and home renovation materials.
NATIONAL AGENDA
Somchai Suwachittanont, assistant chief executive of KTIS Group, is advocating for the government to prioritize water management issues as a national agenda item to enhance protection for sugar and other agribusinesses against flooding and drought.
Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation Plc (KTIS) is actively monitoring the floods, although they have not significantly impacted the company’s sugar production.
Mr. Somchai emphasized the agricultural sector’s critical role in the economy, providing food and income for a majority of Thais, while also highlighting the ongoing challenges posed by climate change, such as flooding and drought, which directly threaten productivity and farmers’ incomes. Therefore, he argues that the government must prioritize effective water resource management as a national agenda.
“Collective efforts are necessary for substantial improvements in water management,” Mr. Somchai stated. “We must address how to effectively store large volumes of water, including this year’s supply, for future use, and guarantee water security for local farmers during dry spells.”
He added that KTIS’s sugar-cane contract farmers are currently not affected by the floods in the North.
KTIS anticipates a 15-20% increase in production due to increased rainfall this year, according to Mr. Somchai.
As an agricultural enterprise, KTIS recognizes climate change as a business risk, noting that droughts could have severe repercussions on cane production.
“KTIS has been proactive in assisting local farmers with preventive measures, including groundwater extraction and pond construction,” he noted.
TOURISM UNDER THREAT
Thaneth Tantipiriyakij, president of the Phuket Tourist Association, warned that Phuket could lose its competitive edge as a tourist destination unless a long-term water management plan and significant infrastructure investments are urgently initiated.
Phuket suffered severe flooding last month, affecting transportation and airport operations, while a landslide caused by heavy rains resulted in the deaths of 13 individuals, including 11 foreigners.
Mr. Thaneth pointed out that these incidents reflect a lack of preventive infrastructure and urban management capable of mitigating the adverse effects of climate change.
According to him, Phuket receives approximately 160-170 million baht in development funds per year, which is insufficient for significant infrastructure projects such as roads, retaining walls, water management systems, and public transport. The estimated cost for these developments ranges from 1 to 10 billion baht.
“Phuket plays a vital role in driving the country’s economy, yet we receive a disproportionately small development budget,” stated Mr. Thaneth.
He noted that experts had previously expressed concerns over constructions in elevated areas and hillsides prior to the landslide. These constructions altered natural water flows, and some areas had building sites obstructing waterways that resulted in severe landslides.
While most properties in Phuket are built legally, he suspects that some developments may have occurred without proper authorization, an issue he believes should be promptly addressed by authorities.
Tourism operators are also apprehensive about ongoing discussions to amend laws related to urban planning and natural resources in Phuket, seeking to attract investors amid limited land availability.
The Natural Resources and Environment Ministry is in the process of drafting new regulations that include extending the height limit for buildings from 80 meters to 140 meters above sea level. This would enable the construction of taller buildings in various zones throughout Phuket, potentially maintaining the same or even shorter setback distances, according to Mr. Thaneth.
“The government should instead prioritize accelerating essential infrastructure projects, including long-delayed initiatives like the motorway, the Patong tunnel, and public transport systems, to maintain competitiveness with other premier destinations,” he said.
With the government committed to promoting second-tier cities, Mr. Thaneth believes that Phuket and other major tourist locations should serve as a launchpad for these initiatives.
Water shortages during dry seasons are another pressing concern, and he recommends expediting the water pipeline project that connects Phuket with the Rajjaprabha Dam.
