Exports and tourism are projected to sustain Thailand’s economy, though the automotive sector raises concerns, according to the Finance Ministry.
Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office, indicated that November’s economic indicators for private sector consumption reveal improvements compared to the same month last year. However, durable goods consumption, especially in the automotive industry, remains weak.
In November, the value-added tax (VAT) at constant prices rose by 1.8% year-on-year and increased by 0.6% from the previous month after seasonal adjustments. This trend corresponds with a rise in the Consumer Confidence Index for November, which climbed to 56.9 from 56.0 in October, bolstered by economic stimulus projects for welfare cardholders and people with disabilities, along with ongoing growth in exports and tourism.
Real agricultural income saw an 8% increase year-on-year in November. However, the automotive sector continues to struggle, as evidenced by a 30.1% drop in new passenger car registrations and a 4.5% decline in motorcycle registrations compared to the same month last year. Seasonally adjusted figures also showed decreases of 0.9% and 0.1%, respectively.
Mr. Pornchai noted that private investment indicators are showing signs of a slowdown, with machinery and equipment investment falling by 5.1% year-on-year in November and down 6.4% seasonally adjusted from the previous month.
The registration of new commercial vehicles also decreased by 20.7% year-on-year and fell by 5.6% month-on-month after seasonal adjustments.
Conversely, private investment in construction reflected positive growth, with domestic cement sales rising by 17.8% in November compared to the same period last year, and increasing by 0.2% month-on-month after adjustments.
Real estate transaction taxes, however, fell by 0.6% year-on-year in November and contracted by 4.5% month-on-month after seasonal adjustments.
On the export front, Mr. Pornchai reported an increase in merchandise export values for November. The total export value of goods reached US$25.6 billion, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth.
When excluding oil, oil-related products, gold, and military items, exports grew by 7%, driven by sectors such as computers, accessories, air-conditioners, and machinery. Fresh, chilled, frozen, and dried fruits, as well as pet food and rubber, registered significant growth rates of 44.8%, 18.1%, and 14.1%, respectively, while exports of refined sugar, rice, and tapioca products saw declines. Thailand’s major trading partners showed export growth with India (31.6%), Indochina (21%), China (16.9%), and the US (9.5%), while Japan and Hong Kong experienced contractions of 3.7% and 9.9%, respectively.
Mr. Pornchai also noted that Thailand welcomed 3.15 million international tourists in November, a 19.5% year-on-year increase, primarily from China, Malaysia, India, South Korea, and Russia.
The agricultural sector, as reflected by the Agricultural Production Index, grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November and increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustments.
Furthermore, the Industrial Confidence Index rose to 91.4 in November from 89.1 in October, fueled by increased production to meet domestic and international demand during the year-end festive season, economic stimulus initiatives for 2024, and ongoing tourism sector growth.
Overall economic stability appears strong, with a headline inflation rate of 0.95% and core inflation at 0.8% in November. As of the end of October, the public debt-to-GDP ratio was 64%, remaining consistent with the fiscal discipline established by the State Fiscal and Financial Disciplines Act.
