According to the top currency forecaster, the Thai baht’s four-month rally is expected to weaken amid ongoing political turmoil, which is likely to impact the country’s economy.
Christoper Wong, senior FX strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., predicts the baht may trade around 32.30 per US dollar by the end of this year and into the first quarter of 2026. This forecast suggests only a modest 0.7% appreciation from current levels, following a gain of over 5% during the four months ending in June.
“In the upcoming months, factors such as declining tourism, subdued domestic demand, political developments, and tariff uncertainties could impede the baht’s appreciation,” Wong stated in a recent interview. “Compared to other Asian currencies, I believe the baht may continue to stay on the back foot.”
This outlook coincides with concerns over Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension, which has raised fears of delays in the new budget and economic stimulus measures, potentially worsening Thailand’s sluggish growth. Wong also noted that the central bank may respond by implementing deeper interest rate cuts.
While most Asian currencies have strengthened against the US dollar recently, driven by concerns over US growth slowdown and fiscal issues, the baht has historically been supported by gold prices. However, a recent decoupling of the correlation between gold and the baht suggests that domestic issues now weigh more heavily on investor sentiment.
Wong, who has not yet conducted client-related trips to Thailand, was ranked as the top baht forecaster in the three months through June and the second-best in the first quarter, according to Bloomberg’s evaluation based on accuracy, timing, and directional correctness.
Wong added that investors are currently hesitant to take positions, waiting for clarity on tariffs and political developments amid heightened uncertainty.