The residential sector is expected to face ongoing challenges in 2026, with weak consumer confidence, high household debt, and a sluggish economy leading to declining revenue and profits. According to Terra Media, consumer confidence dropped from 72 to 66 between 2024 and 2025, while the combined revenue of 35 listed developers fell 16% in the first nine months of 2025 to 191.8 billion baht. Net profits also declined by 30%, highlighting the sector’s ongoing slowdown since peaking in 2022. Continued low demand, mortgage rejections, and rising costs are key hurdles for developers next year.
Credit: Bangkok Post
In the first nine months of 2025, the net profit margin for the housing sector was the lowest on record, at only 9.1%, with other years posting double-digit margins. Kasikorn Securities predicts ongoing supply-demand mismatches will challenge developers through early 2026. However, profits for 10 major listed developers are expected to rebound next year, supported by easing competition and a low 2025 base.
In Q3 2025, these developers’ combined net profit dropped 27% YoY to 5.4 billion baht, mainly due to decreased residential transfers, which declined 21% YoY to 37 billion baht. Sales of residential projects also fell, leading to postponed launches and a 22% decrease in new project value to 59.6 billion baht. Project development value slightly declined to 551 billion baht, while interest-bearing debt decreased by 5.2% YoY to 352 billion baht, with the debt-to-equity ratio improving to 1.04.