The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reaffirmed Thailand’s GDP growth forecast at 2% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, consistent with previous projections from July and aligned with the latest World Bank estimates, according to its October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The report was released during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meeting 2025 in Washington D.C.
The IMF highlighted that the global economy remains “volatile and directionless,” primarily due to shifts in US policy priorities and other countries adjusting to evolving global standards. A significant source of uncertainty comes from recent US trade measures, which have raised tariffs to levels not seen in a century. Although tariffs have decreased from their April peak, they still range between 10-20% for most trading partners—significantly above 2024 levels.
The report notes that early 2025’s strong economic activity was largely driven by temporary stockpiling and exports by businesses trying to avoid higher tariffs. As these protective measures lessen, signs point to a slowdown in US growth, estimated around 2.0% for 2025. Inflation remains a key concern; while the initial tax impacts have been muted, core inflation in the US is rising, with forecasts predicting further increases in the latter half of 2025 as higher costs are passed on to consumers.
Fiscal policies in many advanced economies remain lax, leading to rising public debt ratios. In the US, debt is projected to increase from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030. Long-term risks include technological decoupling, cross-border labor restrictions, and a declining foreign workforce, which could hamper resource allocation and slow economic growth over time.
Financial risks are also mounting, notably overvaluation in sectors like artificial intelligence. If productivity expectations are not met, equity markets could face sharp corrections similar to the dot-com crash of 2000-2001.
The IMF urges policymakers to act swiftly to bolster confidence, ensure certainty, and promote sustainable growth. Critical measures include clarifying trade policies with enforceable plans, maintaining fiscal discipline to manage debt levels, and preserving the independence and credibility of central banks to uphold price stability amid slowing global growth and persistent inflation pressures.