Thailand’s stock market is likely to remain volatile this year, with returns continuing to trail overseas markets due to the absence of clear near-term catalysts and ongoing domestic and global risks, according to One Asset Management (ONEAM).
Chief executive Pote Harinasuta said international equity markets continue to offer attractive return potential, supported by steady earnings growth driven largely by substantial investment in technology stocks, particularly in artificial intelligence infrastructure. He added that current technology stock valuations remain well below levels seen during the dot-com bubble in 2000.
Asian economies are showing strong growth momentum, with technology and industrial stocks expected to be key drivers of Asia-Pacific markets this year. Mr Pote said investors should closely watch global economic data, which could improve amid accommodative monetary policies and fiscal stimulus from major economies including the US, Europe and China.
Although inflation is expected to stay elevated, it remains manageable and should continue to support global equities, particularly in the early part of the year, he said.
ONEAM forecasts the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index could reach 1,400 points this year if political stability improves following the general election. Mr Pote advised investors to monitor both short- and long-term stimulus measures to help determine investment timing, noting that post-election coalition negotiations will be an important factor for the Thai economy and capital markets.
Thai equities are seen as having limited downside, supported by relatively attractive valuations. The market is trading at around 13 times earnings, compared with the Asian average of 14, while offering an overall dividend yield of about 4%, ONEAM said.
Mr Pote added that modest economic growth could prompt further policy rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand, helping to reduce costs and support corporate profitability. As a result, Thai dividend equity funds remain suitable for investors seeking a balance between return and risk.
ONEAM expects its assets under management in 2026 to remain broadly stable at 150–170 billion baht. The firm is also preparing to launch new alternative investment products, including Thailand’s first litigation finance fund, which targets annual returns of around 20% and is scheduled for launch in the first quarter of 2026.
Litigation finance involves funding legal cases in exchange for returns linked to case outcomes. ONEAM noted that such investments tend to have low correlation with global economic cycles, making them suitable for navigating market uncertainty in 2026.
Monthol Junchaya, chief investment officer at ONEAM, said the firm has advised clients to invest overseas over the past five years due to limited catalysts for a Thai market recovery and persistent domestic and external risks.
For investors seeking local exposure, ONEAM continues to recommend high-dividend Thai stocks offering yields of 6–7%, which still present an acceptable risk-return profile for certain investors.
In November 2025, ONEAM launched the ONE RAREEARTH fund, aimed at investors seeking lower-risk assets with minimal correlation to broader markets. Designed to manage volatility from mid-2025 through the period leading up to the US midterm elections, the fund has delivered a year-to-date return of 17%.