Thailand’s mobile market is about to take a hit as the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) rolls out stricter biometric authentication rules for SIM card registration. The goal? To crack down on unauthorized SIM cards and prevent online scams. But with tighter regulations, the country’s massive prepaid SIM user base is likely to shrink.
Currently, Thailand has around 94 million mobile subscriptions, but with these new rules in place, analysts predict a 19% drop—bringing the total down to 77.8 million by the end of 2025. This shift comes as the country tries to bring its mobile penetration rate closer to 100%. Right now, Thailand’s mobile penetration sits at an inflated 140%, thanks to widespread multi-SIM usage. Once the new rules take effect, this number is expected to drop to around 111%.
How big the impact will be remains uncertain. Similar SIM registration efforts in the Philippines led to a massive 25% decline in mobile subscriptions in 2024. Factors like deadline extensions, regulation tweaks, and how many people actually use multiple SIMs will determine how steep the decline in Thailand will be.
Despite the short-term dip, the market is expected to bounce back. By 2034, analysts predict Thailand’s mobile penetration will climb back up to 131%, with roughly 91.6 million subscribers. Some emerging markets have already gone through multiple rounds of SIM registration exercises, meaning future revisions to these forecasts are likely.
For mobile operators, these new rules come with risks. Not only do they have to invest in verifying their customers and ensuring compliance with NBTC guidelines, but failure to do so could result in hefty fines. While this could temporarily hurt profit margins, it’s expected to be a short-term challenge.
As more countries introduce strict SIM registration mandates to fight fraud, Thailand is just the latest to join the trend. How this plays out in the long run remains to be seen.
