Rice exporters are anticipating a rise in global prices during the second quarter due to various factors, including the effects of the El Niño climate phenomenon and India’s restrictions on rice exports. These export restrictions were implemented by the Indian government in response to escalating domestic prices and concerns regarding a potential shortage caused by adverse weather conditions. Since the ban on non-basmati white rice in July 2023, global rice prices have surged by 15-25%.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, the honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, noted that rice exports amounted to 2.5 million tonnes in the first quarter. Exporters have been focusing on supplying significant quantities of white rice to key Southeast Asian markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, as well as regions in Africa and the Middle East.
It’s expected that major importers of white and fragrant rice in the U.S. and Asia will witness a spike in demand to counterbalance reduced local supplies due to the exceptionally high global prices. Thailand’s rice supply remains stable, and with the baht weakening against the dollar, Thai rice prices are deemed competitive, leading importers to opt for Thai rice over others.
As of March 27, the price of Thai white rice was recorded at US$601 per tonne, with Vietnam and Pakistan priced between $582-586 and $605-609 per tonne, respectively. Thai parboiled rice was priced at $606 per tonne, while Indian and Pakistani parboiled rice ranged from $551-555 and $618-622 per tonne, respectively.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, export volumes may experience a slight dip due to heightened competition as Vietnam’s harvest season commenced in March. As long as India upholds its ban on white rice exports, Thai rice prices are anticipated to remain relatively high in the first half of the year.
Mr. Chookiat projects that rice exports for this year could reach 8 million tonnes with an approximate value of 180 billion baht, surpassing the previous estimate of 7.5 million tonnes at a value of 150 billion baht. Additionally, Indonesia’s rice imports are expected to exceed earlier forecasts, with estimates reaching up to 3.6 million tonnes for the year. Amidst these developments, Indonesia recently initiated a tender to purchase 200,000 tonnes of rice, with Thailand securing the bid for 100,000 tonnes, followed by Pakistan and Vietnam.
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