Following its resumption of trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) on August 4, Thai Airways International (THAI) has experienced a remarkable surge in its share price, increasing over 400% within just 15 days, capturing the attention of many investors.
This rally was driven by the airline’s impressive second-quarter financial results, where normalized profits significantly outperformed market expectations, soaring by 465% year-on-year due to lower fuel costs and interest expenses amid reduced debt under its business rehabilitation plan.
Although earnings are projected to decline in the second half of 2025, analysts have raised their net profit forecasts for THAI for both 2025 and 2026, citing rising travel demand and ongoing route expansions.
“THAI is experiencing a positive shift in its sales mix,” said Parin Kitchatornpitak, an analyst at KGI Securities (Thailand). He noted that the segment of network passengers increased from 6% in 2023 to 15% in 2024, and further to 21% in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, point-to-point passengers decreased from 94% in 2023 to 79% in 2025.
“This is a promising trend, especially during the slow season. The airline’s available seat kilometers rose by 15% year-on-year, supported by higher aircraft utilization and the resumption of key European routes such as Oslo, Milan, and Brussels, along with increased frequencies on regional Asian routes to meet growing travel demand,” Parin explained.
Pasakorn Wangvivatchareon, an analyst at Asia Plus Securities, upgraded THAI’s normalized profit forecast for this year by 15%, to 32 billion baht—an increase of 49%. He also raised the forecast for 2026 to 33 billion baht, up 2% from previous estimates.
“Profit growth this year is anticipated to reach a new high, driven by lower operating and interest expenses. From 2026 onward, profit growth is expected to normalize,” Pasak noted.
Meanwhile, Maybank Securities (Thailand) increased its earnings estimates for THAI by 13% for 2025 and 7% for 2026, primarily reflecting better cost control, especially in maintenance and employee benefits.
“First-half earnings accounted for 56% of our full-year forecast. Earnings were likely front-loaded, and we expect a contraction in the second half due to seasonal factors,” said analyst Boonyakorn Amornsank.
Thai Airways CEO Chai Eamsiri highlighted the airline’s focus on reshaping its image from a speculative stock to a long-term valued investment. He emphasized that the airline aims to shed its past challenges and improve its reputation among investors.
Fleet and Route Expansion Plans
Prior to resuming trading, Chai revealed that THAI aims to double its fleet to 150 aircraft by 2033 to capitalize on Asia’s travel surge, including 98 wide-body and 52 narrow-body planes.
The airline plans to expand its fleet to 93 aircraft in 2024 from the current 78, up from 103 prior to its rehabilitation. On June 16, the Central Bankruptcy Court approved THAI’s exit from its rehabilitation program, which was initiated in May 2020 following its massive 400-billion-baht debt.
To support growth, the airline intends to add three aircraft later this year—primarily to boost Chinese and Indian routes by late 2025 or early 2026. Additionally, 15 new A321neos are scheduled for delivery starting next year. THAI also plans to lease 8-10 wide-body aircraft for six years to meet capacity needs before new aircraft are delivered. Cabin refurbishment projects across Airbus A320, Boeing 777-300ER, and Airbus A350 jets are underway to standardize inflight services.
Chai also announced that the airline will increase flights to China, doubling frequencies to Guangzhou and Beijing from seven to 14 weekly flights during the 2025-26 winter season, and resuming routes to Xiamen, Chongqing, and Changsha with seven flights each week. New destinations such as Wuhan and Shenzhen are also planned.
“Chinese routes not only attract Chinese travelers but also tourists from Europe and Australia passing through Bangkok,” said Chai. Currently, China route load factors average 70% in low season and approximately 80% during peak periods.
Furthermore, THAI intends to launch new services to Gaya, India, along with several domestic routes coinciding with new aircraft deliveries.
Challenges and Risks
Despite optimism, Chai acknowledged potential delays in flight and route expansions due to difficulties in securing additional aircraft, particularly wide-body models, which are crucial for expanding European routes. THAI relies on leased aircraft as a temporary measure until the delivery of purchased planes, expected to start in 2027.
Chai also warned of a likely “seat shortage” over the next two years if the airline cannot lease new wide-body aircraft by mid-2026, which could force a halt on new routes