Thai Airways International (THAI) could benefit from airspace closures across several Middle Eastern countries amid rising tensions in the Gulf, despite facing higher fuel costs, according to analysts.
Thanapol Jiratanakij, an aviation analyst at CGS International Securities (Thailand), said THAI has limited direct exposure to the Middle East, meaning the closures are unlikely to significantly disrupt its operations. Instead, reduced capacity from Gulf carriers may tighten supply on certain long-haul routes, particularly between Asia and Europe.
This could support higher passenger yields on THAI’s Europe routes over the next three to six months. Europe accounted for 42% of the airline’s total revenue passenger kilometres last year.
The airline is also expanding its fleet, with a net addition of 22 aircraft expected from the 80 aircraft it operated at the end of last year. Most deliveries are scheduled for the second half of this year, and CGS forecasts THAI’s available seat kilometres to rise by 6% year-on-year in fiscal 2026.
Maybank Securities said THAI could also see increased demand from European travellers seeking direct flights to Thailand, as safety concerns grow around major Middle Eastern aviation hubs.
However, analysts warned the airline remains vulnerable to rising jet fuel prices, which accounted for 32–40% of THAI’s operating expenses in 2025. Maybank expects jet fuel prices to average $110 per barrel in 2026, compared with $87 last year.
THAI has hedged around 50% of its fuel usage for the first half of 2026 and 30% for the second half, which should help limit cost pressures. Analysts expect the airline to offset higher fuel costs by raising ticket prices, while reduced competition from Gulf carriers may further support fares on Europe-bound routes.