Thailand’s export growth slowed in July but still exceeded expectations, as shipments surged ahead of US tariffs. However, growth is expected to decelerate in the coming months after the tariffs took effect, the commerce ministry announced Monday.
Exports, cleared through customs, increased by 11% year-on-year in July, surpassing the forecasted 9.6% growth from a Reuters poll, though down from June’s 15.5% rise. In the first seven months of 2025, exports grew 14.4% compared to the previous year. The ministry maintains its full-year export growth forecast of 2% to 3%, though the strong start suggests it could be higher.
Trade officials expect growth to slow in the remaining months of 2025 as importers front-loaded purchases to offset tariffs, according to Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office. He added that achieving double-digit annual export growth is now unlikely.
In July, exports to the US—Thailand’s largest market—rose 31.4%, while shipments to China increased 23.1%. The US implemented a 19% tariff on Thai goods, lower than the initially announced 36%, aligning with other regional countries.
Uncertainties remain regarding tariffs on transshipped goods through Thailand from third countries. Last year, the US accounted for 18.3% of Thailand’s total exports, valued at $55 billion.
Imports rose 5.1% in July, slightly above the forecast of 4.9%, leading to a trade surplus of $0.32 billion, compared to an expected $0.5 billion deficit.