Photo Credit: Reuters
Thailand’s rice exports are expected to decrease to around 7 million tonnes in 2026 from approximately 8 million tonnes in 2025, primarily due to the strengthening baht, according to the Ministry of Commerce on Friday.
“If the baht continues to strengthen, it will pose a significant challenge for Thai agricultural exports,” stated Arada Fuangtong, head of the Department of Foreign Trade, during a press briefing.
She emphasized that the Thai currency should remain competitive and stable, noting that the baht is currently 10–20% stronger than competing currencies. The baht is trading at a four-year high against the US dollar, appreciating 9.4% this year, making it Asia’s second-best performing currency.
The currency’s strength has exacerbated difficulties in Thailand’s economy, which is already facing multiple obstacles this year, including US tariffs, high household debt, a border conflict with Cambodia, and political uncertainty ahead of the upcoming elections in February.
The new government will need to address the issue of declining rice prices for farmers, who earlier this year called for better support measures.
Arada mentioned that a recent agreement to export 500,000 tonnes of rice to China is expected to continue, benefiting from strong bilateral relations. Additionally, Thailand signed a deal last month to sell up to 100,000 tonnes of rice to Singapore over five years.
The country is also working to expand its markets for white and parboiled rice in countries such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other nations across the Middle East and Africa.
Furthermore, Thailand is exploring opportunities in Germany, Switzerland, and the US for rice varieties through the Khaopraneat project, which promotes Thai rice as a cultural product distinguished by its unique flavor, identity, and value.
While rice exports are projected to reach between 7.88 million and 8 million tonnes in 2025—slightly exceeding the target of 7.5 million, thanks to strong year-end demand—this volume is still below the nearly 10 million tonnes exported in 2024, when Thailand was the world’s second-largest rice exporter behind India.
In the first 11 months of 2025, rice exports declined by 21% year-on-year to 7.3 million tonnes, with export value dropping by 30.3%. This decline was driven by excess supply, India’s release of large rice stocks, and the Philippines’ suspension of rice imports. The decline in export value was also impacted by falling prices and the strengthening currency, according to Arada.