Thailand recorded a historic trade deficit of approximately US$10 billion in April as imports surged sharply, according to the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Ministry of Commerce.
Imports rose 45% year-on-year to a record US$41.6 billion, driven by higher purchases of raw materials, semi-finished products, capital goods, and energy. Exports also reached an all-time high, climbing 23.1% to US$31.5 billion. However, the faster pace of import growth resulted in a trade deficit of US$10.02 billion, said TPSO director-general Nantapong Chiralerspong.
During the first four months of 2026, Thailand’s exports increased 19% to US$127.7 billion, while imports jumped nearly 36% to US$147.2 billion, pushing the cumulative trade deficit to US$19.5 billion.
Thailand continued to post a significant trade imbalance with China, recording a deficit of US$7.68 billion in April and US$29.2 billion during the January–April period. The deficit was mainly attributed to imports of electrical machinery, components, and industrial machinery.
In contrast, Thailand maintained a strong trade surplus with the United States, recording a surplus of approximately US$4.65 billion in April and US$21.5 billion over the first four months of the year.
Imports of raw materials and semi-finished goods totalled US$17.6 billion in April, up 39% year-on-year, led by electrical circuit boards and transistors. Capital goods imports reached US$10.3 billion, rising 32.8%, while energy imports surged 128.6% to US$8.39 billion.
Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) warned that if imports continue growing at nearly twice the pace of exports, Thailand could shift into an overall trade deficit position for 2026.
“Last month’s figures showed that imports surged two times higher than exports. If this trend continues, the trade surplus could narrow significantly by year-end or potentially turn into a deficit,” said Nuttaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of K-Research.
Exports to Thailand’s key markets remained strong in April, increasing 24.8% year-on-year. Shipments to the United States surged 44.2%, while exports to China grew 21.9%.
Industrial product exports expanded 27.5%, supported by strong demand for computers, electronic components, machinery, and gems and jewellery. The agricultural sector also returned to growth, benefiting from Thailand’s fruit harvest season and sustained global demand for agricultural products.
Analysts noted that part of the export growth was driven by companies accelerating shipments overseas following a US ruling that deemed former President Donald Trump’s proposed global tariffs unlawful, while new tariff measures have yet to take effect.
According to K-Research, export momentum remains concentrated in the electronic components sector, particularly products linked to the global artificial intelligence boom, while vehicle exports have also shown slight improvement.
Looking ahead, the TPSO outlined three possible export scenarios for 2026.
Under the worst-case scenario, exports could decline 3% to US$329.4 billion due to ongoing energy market volatility, shipping disruptions, rising logistics costs, container shortages, uncertain US tariff policies, and weaker demand in the technology sector.
In the base-case scenario, exports are forecast to grow 3% to US$349.8 billion, supported by continued expansion in the electronics and technology sectors despite a sluggish global economy.
In the best-case scenario, exports could rise as much as 8% to US$366.8 billion, supported by strong front-loading activity in the first half of the year, continued growth in electronics exports, and easing shipping and container constraints.