By 2041, economists expect to receive 44,500 new jets costing $2.9 trillion.
According to the most recent Cirium Fleet Forecast released by Ascend by Cirium, the consulting division of aviation analytics company Cirium, 44,500 additional aircraft costing $2.9 trillion will be required to match the anticipated increase in passenger traffic over the next 20 years.
Around 88% of the fleet of existing commercial passenger planes, according to the prediction, will be retired from service by 2041, which was announced on January 24, 2023.
“It is anticipated that within the next 20 years, close to 88% of the current passenger fleet would cease operating. By 2041, around 70% of the current fleet of freighters—which have longer economic useful lives—will be retired, according to analysts.
In addition to the additional 2,500 aircraft that depart the passenger fleet due to cargo conversion, there will be about 19,000 retirements from the passenger fleet by the end of 2021, they continued.
Therefore, the aviation sector will require tens of thousands more aircraft to replace less effective older-generation jets in order to fulfill the annual 3.6% growth in demand for air travel.
By 2041, the total number of passenger jet deliveries should be 70% single-aisle aircraft, according to experts. By 2041, passenger aircraft deliveries are anticipated to be made up of 70% narrowbody aircraft. Widebody airplanes will still be in substantially less demand on the market.
Due to the slow recovery of long-haul travel, analysts predicted that the single-aisle fleet would grow more quickly by 3.7% annually compared to twin-aisles’ 3.2%.
With the turboprop fleet expected to grow at a quicker rate within the regional sector, Cirium continued, “the fleet of regional aircraft will rise more subtly, by 1.1% a year.
Meanwhile, it is anticipated that over the following 20 years, more than 3,650 cargo aircraft will be delivered. A total of 2,480 passenger-to-freighter conversions will also be performed, in addition to about 1,060 newly constructed freighters with a value of 130 billion.
The future is bright, according to Rob Morris, CEO of Ascend by Cirium. The international market “remains on schedule” to resume “traditional development patterns” by 2025.
The aviation sector’s recovery from the Covid-19 crisis in the beginning of 2020 has advanced significantly, if unevenly, throughout regions. It is anticipated that in October, global aviation activity will surpass 2019 levels. […]
This is in spite of the fact that in 2022, issues including China’s travel restrictions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and growing oil prices will all become important ones. The region that will provide the most aircraft will be Asia-Pacific.
According to experts, China will continue to be the main driver of development for new jet deliveries in the Asia-Pacific area. In 2041, it is predicted that 22% of deliveries will be made by airlines in the area. The expected supplies should be split between North American and European air carriers, who will each receive 21% and 17%.
7% of deliveries are anticipated to be accepted by Middle Eastern airlines, which will account for 14% of the total value because of the region’s abundance of higher-value twin-aisle deliveries, according to the projection.
The near future is predicted to see a drop in Russia’s capacity and passenger traffic.
The experts stated, “With the complete suspension of Ukrainian civil aviation activity, it is therefore anticipated that in 2024, Russia/CIS traffic will stabilize at 70% of 2019 levels.
