Thailand’s exports grew by 15.5% year-over-year in June, with notable gains in the US market. However, the Ministry of Commerce predicts a slowdown in export growth in the latter half of the year.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, noted June exports valued at $28.6 billion, marking the 12th consecutive month of expansion. Imports increased by 13.1% to $27.5 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.06 billion. The growth was driven by delayed US tariff measures, prompting US importers to accelerate orders from Thailand amid potential price risks. Increased global digital demand also boosted exports of electronics and related products.
Agricultural exports, including fresh and frozen fruits, tapioca, palm oil, refined sugar, processed chicken, and pet food, showed strong performance. Exports to major markets grew by 19.3%, with the US up 41.9%, China 23.1%, the EU 11.9%, and CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) 9%. Exports to ASEAN and Japan also returned to growth at 6.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
For the first half of 2025, exports increased by 15% to $166.8 billion, while imports rose by 11.6% to $166.9 billion, resulting in a small trade deficit of $62.2 million.
Challenges such as US tariff policies and baht appreciation pose risks to exporters’ competitiveness. Although exports may slow in July, a contraction is not expected. The TPSO forecasts a deceleration from August to December, pending US tariff negotiations. If tariffs remain at 18-20%, similar to other ASEAN countries, Thailand’s exports are unlikely to be significantly impacted. However, higher tariffs could reduce Thai export competitiveness.
Thailand has submitted a proposal to the US Trade Representative for broader market access, aiming for favorable tariff rates and sustained competitiveness. The ministry remains optimistic that exports will grow by 2-3% this year.