The Ministry of Commerce forecasts Thailand’s exports will grow between 9.4% and 10.4% this year, supported by clearer US tariffs, global recovery, and rising demand for digital, agricultural, and food products. In September, exports rose 19% year-on-year to $30.9 billion—the 15th consecutive month of growth—while imports increased by 17.2%.
Over the first nine months, exports climbed 13.9% to $254.1 billion. Despite an 8.1% drop in agricultural exports in September, sectors like processed chicken, oils, wheat, sugar, and frozen shrimp saw growth. Industrial exports surged 26% in September, led by computers, autos, jewelry, phones, machinery, and electrical transformers, with an 18.6% rise over nine months.
Credit: Bangkok Post
Exports are expected to increase in the final quarter, aided by clearer US tariff policies that have alleviated market concerns. Mr. Nantapong noted that Thailand remains competitive with the 19% reciprocal tariff.
Global economic recovery, increased production capacity, and growth in the digital technology sector have supported export momentum, alongside rising demand for processed agricultural products and food. Monthly export averages are forecasted at $25-26 billion for the remainder of the year.
Overall, exports are projected to grow between 9.4% and 10.4%, surpassing the initial target of 2-3%, with total export value reaching approximately $329.1-332.1 billion—setting a new record high.
However, several risks need close monitoring, including US-China trade tensions, potential impacts of a prolonged US government shutdown, baht appreciation, and developments related to the Thailand–Cambodia border following the recent peace agreement.