Thailand’s economy could maintain its recovery and grow by around 3% annually if the incoming Bhumjaithai-led coalition government completes a full four-year term, economists say. However, they warn that any disruption to government formation could drag GDP growth below 1.5% this year.
Confidence has improved following the landslide victory of the Bhumjaithai Party in the Feb 8 election. The party is widely expected to take charge of key ministries, including finance, commerce and foreign affairs, according to Kiatanantha Lounkaew, an economist and lecturer at Thammasat University.
Market sentiment also strengthened after the National Economic and Social Development Council reported fourth-quarter 2025 GDP growth of 2.5%, exceeding expectations.
The data prompted caretaker finance minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas, who is expected to retain his post, to say the economy has “left the ICU,” adding that the next government aims to lift growth to 3% this year.
Mr Kiatanantha said sustaining growth momentum for another two to three quarters would help dispel Thailand’s long-standing reputation as the “sick man of Asia.” He stressed that short-term stimulus measures must be rolled out within the new government’s first 100 days to ease pressure on consumers and small businesses.
Any delay in forming a government would postpone stimulus efforts and hurt the economy, he warned.
The Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center is preparing to raise its 2026 GDP forecast from 1.5% to as high as 2%, assuming a stable government is formed within the expected timeframe.
Senior economist Poonyawat Sreesing said challenges remain, particularly weak consumer purchasing power. Still, effective policy implementation could push growth beyond 2% this year. He cautioned that renewed political uncertainty or a re-vote could see growth slip below 1.5%, he told the Bangkok Post.
Meanwhile, Nattapol Kamthakrua, director of securities analysis at Yuanta Securities (Thailand), said GDP growth of 2–3% is possible if a stable coalition is formed and capable ministers are appointed.
Optimism surrounding the election has boosted the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which has outperformed regional peers. The benchmark index is up 17% year-to-date, supported by 52 billion baht in foreign inflows—the highest level in four years.
“For the index to surpass 1,500 points, the economy must continue to expand meaningfully,” he said, noting that while markets have yet to fully price in political outcomes, uncertainty remains a defining feature of Thai politics.