The Bangkok condo market is expected to face significant challenges in 2025, as developers struggle with a large inventory of unsold units and pressure from maturing loans totalling over 156 billion baht. To attract prospective buyers and investors, developers will likely be forced to implement deep discounts and promotions on completed but unsold condos.
Frank Khan, Executive Director and Head of Residential at property consultancy Knight Frank Thailand, anticipates that 2025 will be even more difficult for the market compared to last year. “We expect an influx of unsold inventory entering the market, which will lead developers to lower prices and offer more promotions. Like last year, it will remain a buyer’s market,” Khan said.
In 2024, the total value of newly completed condos in Greater Bangkok amounted to 178.4 billion baht. This is expected to dip to 140.6 billion baht in 2025. However, a large portion of this inventory remains unsold. Stricter mortgage lending rules and high household debt levels mean that many buyers who have purchased units will not complete the transfer.
Prasert Taedullayasatit, President of the Thai Condominium Association, commented, “The market’s ability to absorb this surplus remains uncertain. Developers are under pressure to generate revenue, but there’s limited demand and challenges in refinancing maturing debts.”
Financial statements from listed developers show that at least 24 developers are holding condo inventory with long-term debt exceeding 156.4 billion baht, due for repayment within the year. Khan predicts that investors will become more active in the market as developers release inventory with significant discounts throughout the year.
As a result, many developers have shifted focus to other areas, such as Phuket, where demand from foreign buyers is more promising. Others are moving towards the low-rise housing market, recognizing the difficulties facing the condo sector.
Luxury and super-luxury condos, as well as branded residences priced between 320,000 and 500,000 baht per square metre, continue to perform well, with sales exceeding 80% in both the prime and super-prime segments. However, the overall real estate market remains sluggish, with fewer new project launches expected in 2025 due to oversupply and reduced purchasing power.
One positive trend that may help stimulate the market is the 7.1% increase in the number of expatriates residing in Bangkok in 2024. The largest expatriate groups are from China (28%), the Philippines (25%), and Japan (14%). This growing expatriate population could boost demand for long-term rental properties in prime locations.
Additionally, the recovery of tourism may increase demand for long-term rentals, which could appeal to investors. However, the condo market in Bangkok remains fragile, and continued attention to economic trends and consumer purchasing power is necessary for future forecasts.
