Thailand’s food exports are projected to grow by 8.8% year-on-year, reaching 1.6 trillion baht this year, driven by rising global demand and decreasing raw material prices, according to the National Food Institute (NFI).
Supawan Teerarat, president of the NFI, stated, “Prices for raw materials such as tuna, sugar, soybeans, and wheat have fallen, benefiting the food processing industry.”
In the first half of the year, the value of Thai food exports rose by 9.9% year-on-year, totaling 852 billion baht.
However, food manufacturers and exporters will continue to face challenges this year, including increased freight costs due to geopolitical conflicts and the effects of a weakening US economy. KGI Securities (Thailand) has projected that the US economy may enter a cyclical slowdown from late this year through 2025.
These factors are expected to exert additional pressure on Thailand’s export sector, the NFI indicated.
For the second half of this year, food export values are anticipated to increase by 7.8% year-on-year, amounting to approximately 797 billion baht, with estimates of around 395 billion baht in the third quarter, and a slight rise to 402 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2024, noted Ms. Supawan.
Last year, the value of Thailand’s food exports reached 1.51 trillion baht, fueled by growing global demand for food reserves amidst challenges such as drought, high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and economic slowdowns.
Concerns about food security among Thailand’s trading partners could lead to increased demand for food, although the country may face intensified competition in the global market.
Ms. Supawan expressed confidence that Thailand will secure more food purchase orders, citing the high quality of its products, which has fostered customer trust.
The NFI highlighted concerns regarding food trade dynamics between Thailand and China. Thailand has been increasing its imports of agricultural products from China, such as fruits and vegetables, which is having a negative impact on Thai farmers.
Despite these concerns, Thailand maintains a trade surplus with China, totaling 272 billion baht last year, resulting from food exports worth 370 billion baht to China and imports amounting to 98 billion baht.
In the first half of this year, Thailand registered a trade surplus with China of approximately 132 billion baht.
