Thailand’s rice exports are projected to fall below 8 million tonnes next year due to various risk factors affecting their competitiveness, including a strong baht and the potential lifting of India’s export restrictions by year-end.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, stated that while flooding in the North and Northeast persists, it is not expected to impact rice exports for this year.
The association anticipates that Thailand will exceed its annual export goal of 8.2 million tonnes this year. If the country maintains an export average of 600,000 tonnes per month for the remainder of the year, the total could reach 9 million tonnes.
Indonesia’s rice import agency, Bulog, has been conducting monthly tenders for rice imports, averaging around 450,000 tonnes each month.
However, Thai rice prices have struggled to meet targeted tender prices, as rice from Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan is priced lower, resulting in increased orders for those competing countries.
Rice production in Vietnam, India, Pakistan, and Myanmar has improved due to sufficient rainfall during the La Niña weather phenomenon, leading to higher rice availability in the global market.
Additionally, India has indicated its intent to resume white rice exports in the fourth quarter of this year, which will increase competition for market share and likely push down global rice prices, potentially affecting Thai rice prices as well, according to the association.
The US Department of Agriculture projects that India will remain the largest rice exporter worldwide in 2025, with exports expected to reach 20 million tonnes, followed by Thailand and Vietnam at 7.5 million tonnes each, and Pakistan at 5.6 million tonnes.
The association cautioned that 2025 may be challenging as India is likely to re-enter the rice export market, reclaiming its top position, combined with a stronger baht which could lead to a decline in Thai rice exports to between 7 million and 7.5 million tonnes.
Deputy Commerce Minister Suchart Chomklin recently chaired the opening ceremony of the Thai Rice Networking Forum 2024, aimed at promoting the local rice market and enhancing confidence among trading partners regarding Thailand’s policies for rice and rice product development.
Thailand’s rice exports have been trending positively, with 5.68 million tonnes exported in the first seven months of 2024, marking a 22% increase year-on-year.
This growth has generated 132 billion baht in revenue, a 51% year-on-year increase, driven by rice importers seeking to secure supplies for consumption and food security, in addition to India’s ongoing export restrictions.
