According to SCB EIC, the growth forecast for Thailand in 2023 has been revised down to 2.6% due to lower-than-expected GDP and a slow recovery of Chinese tourists. The economy is projected to grow at a rate of 3.0% in 2024, but concerns remain regarding slow recovery and uncertainties from external and domestic factors. To address structural issues, SCB EIC proposes four enhancing policies, which include measures to boost household immunity, enhance business competitiveness, adjust national investment strategies, and ensure sustainability in the real sector of Thailand’s economy.
The Thai policy rate is expected to remain at the current level of 2.5% throughout 2024 in order to maintain balance in the financial system and manage inflation within the target range. However, the introduction of the Digital Wallet scheme may temporarily boost economic growth, potentially leading to increased inflationary pressures. Additionally, the global economy is forecasted to slow down to 2.5% in 2024 due to tightening monetary policies in developed countries and structural factors in China.
One of the major concerns highlighted by SCB EIC is the declining potential growth of the Thai economy in the long term. Prolonged structural issues and an uneven recovery among households and businesses contribute to this decline. In order to address these challenges, SCB EIC recommends implementing the four enhancing policies mentioned earlier to bolster the overall resilience and competitiveness of the economy.
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