The Thai business sector is closely monitoring the implications of Donald Trump’s second term, particularly his “Golden Age of America” vision, which focuses on boosting the US economy through increased tariffs and encouraging domestic production. This protectionist approach could significantly alter global trade dynamics, with Canada and Mexico being the first countries affected.
Thailand’s Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) emphasizes the need for robust negotiation strategies with the US in light of potential tariffs of 10-20% on Thai exports. The FTI advocates for the establishment of a “war room” to navigate the changing trade policies and suggests that Thailand also accelerate talks for a free trade agreement with the EU to mitigate any losses from the US market.
The trade conflict between China and the US may lead to more Chinese products being redirected to ASEAN countries, intensifying local competition for Thai manufacturers. Economists predict that Trump’s policies could stifle Thailand’s economic growth, with an estimated GDP growth of 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.7% in 2024, and export growth expected to decline from 5% to 2%.
Analysts believe that Trump’s policies could disrupt global trade, with projections for global trade growth being lowered from 3.3% to 2%. Thailand could particularly suffer from US tariffs while potentially benefiting from foreign direct investment as companies reconsider their production locations.
Although international tourism may remain stable, especially from the US, concerns about the slowdown of China’s economy could negatively impact Thailand’s tourism sector. Furthermore, Thailand must enhance its workforce skills to adapt to incoming investments, manage logistics efficiently, and leverage existing free trade agreements to bolster its competitive edge amidst changing trade dynamics.
