Thailand’s longstanding rice crisis has reemerged, with new data indicating continued declines in yields per rai, rising production costs, collapsing domestic rice prices, and export prices hitting their lowest point in over 15 years. Analysts caution that these trends highlight a significant decline in Thailand’s competitiveness within the global rice market.
Assoc Prof Somporn Isvilanonda, a Senior Fellow at the Knowledge Network Institute of Thailand, explained that over the past 14 years, amid four different administrations, government rice policies have been ensnared in a recurring populist cycle—featuring schemes, income guarantees, and direct subsidies like “1,000 baht per rai.” These initiatives have cost between 1.2 and 1.3 trillion baht but have created a policy trap that discourages farmers from adopting new technologies, improving efficiency, or competing globally.
Meanwhile, competitors such as Vietnam and India have modernized their seed quality and production systems, enabling them to export higher-quality rice at lower costs. Thailand remains reliant on a subsidy-dependent model, which poses risks to rural livelihoods and national food security.
Prices Drop While Costs Rise Last year, farmers sold common white paddy at just over 10,000 baht per tonne; now, this has fallen below 8,000 baht. Newly harvested paddy with high moisture content sells for only 5,000 to 6,000 baht per tonne, far below production costs.
Average production costs for Thai farmers are around 7,200 to 7,500 baht per tonne, compared to approximately 6,000 baht in Vietnam and around 5,000 baht in India. Additionally, Thailand’s yields are the lowest in ASEAN, ranging from 370 to 600 kg per rai—while Vietnam achieves around 800 kg/rai, and India ranges from 700 to 800 kg per rai.
For many Thai farmers, this situation means merely breaking even, experiencing losses, or earning only minimal profits. Only those using high-yield varieties and advanced low-cost techniques can survive. Somporn warns that rice farming has become increasingly risky and fragile, trapping many households in stagnation amid middle-income levels.
Proposed Reforms: Zoning, New Varieties, and Low-Carbon Rice Somporn advocates for medium- and long-term reforms to enable farmers’ survival, including:
- Implementing agricultural zoning and encouraging diversified farming to provide farmers with stable monthly incomes rather than seasonal harvest-based earnings.
- Funding research and development for high-yield rice varieties, such as recently approved soft-texture strains RD113, RD117, and RD119, capable of producing over 800 kg per rai.
- Scaling up seed production to meet demand.
- Investing in low-carbon rice production aligned with global climate initiatives to enhance future export value.
- Re-skilling an aging farmer population to adopt modern agricultural technologies.
He emphasizes that with appropriate policies, Thailand can reverse its decline. However, without urgent reforms, the country risks losing its competitiveness in the global rice market and deepening hardship for millions of rural households.
Vietnam Outpaces Thailand in Soft-Texture Rice Development Assoc Prof Dr Aat Pisanwanich, an expert on ASEAN and international economics, highlights the global shift toward soft-texture rice and urges Thailand to accelerate development in this area. He emphasizes the need for Thailand to expand seed production and develop high-yield, high-income varieties that meet farmers’ and export market demands.
Data from the Rice Department’s genetic database shows Thailand has over 200 rice varieties, but only 10–20% (about 40 varieties) are soft-texture. In comparison, Vietnam cultivates over 1,000 varieties, with nearly 50% classified as soft-texture, yielding between 960 kg and 1.3 tonnes per rai.
Aat stresses that Thailand’s rice policies—such as price interventions, pledging schemes, and incomplete varietal development—have failed to satisfy farmers or international markets. Research funding remains limited, efforts to reduce production costs are superficial, and low-carbon rice initiatives have not been effectively implemented. Consequently, Thailand’s rice production system has become fragmented and inefficient.
Vietnam, on the other hand, does not intervene in rice prices. It continuously develops new rice varieties and increases research budgets annually. Its “3 Reductions, 3 Gains” policy—aimed at reducing fertilizer, pesticide, and seed costs while increasing yields, efficiency, and income—has proven effective. Additionally, Vietnam’s comprehensive approach, supported by a unified “One Team” production chain and proactive low-carbon policies, allows for better coordination and competitiveness compared to Thailand.