According to a nationwide poll of 114,457 eligible voters, parties in the ruling coalition will be completely eliminated in the May 14 election as a rise in support for the two biggest opposition parties, Pheu Thai and Move Forward, will give them a landslide victory.According to the Nation Poll study, Pheu Thai and Move Forward are predicted to win more than 300 of the 400 constituency seats combined.
There are 500 MP seats in the House of Representatives; 400 are chosen from constituencies, and 100 are chosen using a proportional party-list system.
The Nation Group includes Nation Poll. Its English-language news source is The Nation.
The survey was carried out between April 24 and May 3. It polled 78,214 voters outside the capital and 36,243 qualified voters in Bangkok. The poll’s error margin is plus or minus 3% in Bangkok, plus or minus 5% in eight significant provincial cities, and plus or minus 7% in all other constituencies, according to the pollsters.In the election of May 14 Pheu Thai may win up to 247 of the 400 constituency MP seats, but Move Forward is expected to take home 79 seats.
decline in the number of unsure voters
In the second nationwide Nation Poll conducted in early April, 8.6% of respondents stated they were still unsure, down from 32% in the first survey conducted throughout the nation in early April. In 18 of the 400 seats surveyed, a majority of voters stated they were undecided, according to Nation Poll.
According to the survey, the Democrat Party is expected to win 15 seats, while its coalition partner Bhumjaithai is expected to win 12.
Pollsters predict that the opposition Prachachat Party will also take home 12 seats.
It is anticipated that the United Thai Nation Party, which has incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its nominee for premier, will only take home seven of the 400 constituency seats.
According to the poll, the incumbent Palang Pracharath Party will perform much worse. Only five seats in the constituency are anticipated to be won. Only four seats are anticipated for Chart Thai Pattana, a different coalition member.
Chart One seat is predicted to go to Pattana Kla.However, pollsters issued a warning that the survey’s margin of error might lead to fewer seats for the two major opposition parties. Pheu Thai may only take home 228 of the 400 constituency seats, while Move Forward may only receive 52.
If liberal voters split evenly between Pheu Thai and Move Forward in competitive districts, conservative parties might prevail, according to pollsters.
Given the survey’s margin of error, the amount of undecided voters, and the potential for Pheu Thai and Move Forward to split liberal voters in some districts, pollsters predicted that conservative parties might make some gains.
Between 19 and 42 constituency seats could be won by the Democrats.
13 to 36 seats could be won by the United Thai Nations.
16 to 39 seats could be won by Bhumjaithai.
Between six and 29 seats might be won by Palang Pracharath, and between four and 27 seats by Chart Thai Pattana.
According to the survey, there will be a lot of close elections in 65 constituencies. According to pollsters, these constituencies’ disparity between the predicted victor and the second- and third-placed candidates could lead to surprises that favor conservative parties.
“Strategic error”
Pollsters came to the conclusion that it was a tactical error for coalition parties to oppose one another in almost all constituencies. According to pollsters, avoiding direct competition would have allowed conservative voters to unite behind one conservative candidate in a constituency.
According to pollsters, coalition parties will lose numerous MP seats as a result of this “strategic mistake”.
They cited the 11 provinces in the upper southern region where the Democrats’, United Thai Nation’s, and Palang Pracharath’s preferred candidates may lose to Pheu Thai or Move Forward contenders because they are splitting the conservative vote.
According to pollsters, there are two to one more conservative voters than liberal voters in the 11 provinces. The South is divided into 14 provinces. The three provinces bordering Malaysia with a majority of Muslims are not included in the upper south.
The majority of Bangkok’s 33 constituencies are predicted to be dominated by Pheu Thai and Move Forward, with Pheu Thai taking the lead over Move Forward.Pita assumes command as PM
Pita Limjaroenrat, the head of Move Forward, won the poll as the candidate with the greatest support for prime minister. Among respondents, 29.4% chose him as their top choice for prime minister, beating out Paetongtarn Shinawatra of Pheu Thai. 27.5% of people still backed her.
Pita lagged Paetongtarn in the initial Nation Poll by 17%.
The 11 upper southern provinces’ respondents’ top two choices for the top political position were Prayut and Pita.
Voters in the three southern border provinces choose Wan Muhammad Noor Matha, the head of the Prachachat Party, as prime minister.
According to the survey, Prachachat is projected to win the majority of the House seats up for grabs in the three southernmost provinces of Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat.
The North and Northeast, which are Pheu Thai’s strongholds, as well as the South, where the Democrats are in control, are areas where Move Forward has a decent possibility of winning gains. According to pollsters, it might also displease United Thai Nation candidates in various electorates.
Pollsters predicted that Move Forward would likely sweep every MP in several provinces, making history in the process.
Strongholds under threat
According to pollsters, parties are losing control of their historic strongholds.
In Buriram, Bhumjaithai can lose seats.
In Chiang Mai, Pheu Thai might lose customers.
Chart The Democrats in Songkhla and Thai Pattana in Suphan Buri both risk losing seats.
Vote buying is still an issue in the forthcoming election, according to pollsters, and it may even have an impact on some results.
According to a sizable portion of respondents, they were waiting to see “who will give more” before deciding who to vote for.
