Thailand’s headline inflation rate declined for the sixth consecutive month in September, falling by 0.72% compared to the previous year, according to the Ministry of Commerce. This ongoing decrease is mainly due to government relief policies that reduced energy costs—such as lower fuel prices and electricity tariffs—and decreased prices for fresh foods like eggs, vegetables, and fruits.
Despite the downward trend in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), authorities assure that the country is not slipping into deflation. They highlight the positive core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, rising by 0.65% year-on-year. Although this is lower than August’s 0.81%, it signals that domestic demand remains active.
Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, explained that the significant cuts in energy and food prices are temporary factors influencing the headline figures. He emphasized that core inflation, reflecting underlying demand, remains positive and suggests the economy is still growing.
Many have questioned whether Thailand is heading toward deflation. Nantapong clarified that true deflation involves multiple factors and that, in overall terms, the economy is still supported by ongoing demand, stable employment, and sector activity. He added that the government’s outlook is for inflation to hover near zero in the final quarter of 2025, with a revised full-year forecast of approximately 0.0%.
In summary, while headline inflation shows a consistent downward trend, authorities maintain that Thailand’s economic fundamentals remain solid, and the risk of deflation is not imminent.