Bankers are growing increasingly worried about a possible downgrade of Thailand’s sovereign credit rating amid declining tax revenues and rising public debt.
Piti Tantakasem, CEO of TMBThanachart Bank, highlighted the risk, noting that if GDP growth slows further while debt levels rise, the country’s credit standing could be jeopardized. Although the current public debt-to-GDP ratio remains below the government’s 70% ceiling, it has edged up to 63.2% at the end of July 2025, from 63.9% in 2024, 64.3% in 2023, and 63.8% in 2022.
Thailand’s economic growth has slowed significantly over the decades, from 7-8% before the 1997 Asian financial crisis to around 2% post-pandemic, with recent years marked by political instability and sluggish expansion.
Piti urged the private sector and banks to adapt proactively, instead of waiting for political stability. A recent white paper titled “Reinvent Thailand,” developed collaboratively by the government and private sector, promotes structural reforms focused on reducing household debt, increasing formal credit access, and boosting domestic competitiveness through technology and workforce development.
Additionally, Thailand’s industrial sector needs to become more self-reliant and prioritize local content to prepare for US tariff policies.
Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, warned that the country’s credit rating could face downward pressure soon, as agencies evaluate the government’s long-term ability to meet debt obligations, especially considering potential declines in tax revenue amid a slowing economy.