Aviation authorities foresee a resurgence in Thailand’s passenger numbers by next year, despite lingering economic uncertainties and sluggish recovery in certain supply chains. Yongyut Lujintanon, the area manager for Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), highlighted several factors influencing this outlook, even as the Tourism Authority of Thailand aims for nearly 40 million arrivals this year.
The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) reported an increase in slot requests, indicating a growing interest in air travel. However, Mr. Yongyut emphasized challenges such as geopolitical tensions, rising expenses—particularly fuel costs, which have surged 3-5 times above pre-pandemic levels—and supply chain issues like fleet resumption and infrastructure limitations.
Thailand ranked fourth in traffic recovery in Southeast Asia in 2023, trailing behind the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam, with Vietnam being the only country to surpass 2019 traffic levels. While the Asia-Pacific region’s revenue passenger kilometers rebounded to 93% of 2019 levels by January 2024, it still lags behind the global average, which has fully recovered.
IATA predicts that international passenger numbers will match 2019 levels next year, with varying speeds of border reopening across different markets, notably China.
CAAT’s deputy director-general, Sarun Benjanirat, forecasts a full recovery in Thailand’s passenger numbers by the end of this year at the earliest, with the base-case scenario targeting full recovery by 2025, aligning with IATA’s projection. He emphasizes the importance of airlines increasing their fleets to boost seat capacity, which would lead to lower airfares and stimulate travel demand.
The resumption of major markets like China, which accounted for over a quarter of total international passengers in 2019, remains critical. In 2023, Thailand handled 121 million passengers, 74% of the 2019 level, with a significant portion on domestic flights. Thai Airways and Thai AirAsia were the leading carriers for international flights, while Thai AirAsia dominated the domestic market.
Following inspections of provincial airports under the “Air-mazing Thailand” project, international carriers have expressed interest in slots at airports in Udon Thani and Surat Thani. Surat Thani, in particular, offers the capacity to accommodate large aircraft and could serve as an alternative to Samui Airport.
