Super Poll predicts that the Pheu Thai party will gain 139 House seats in the general election on May 14 with a 5% margin of error, but not by a wide margin.
The forecast is based on their 7th opinion poll of 14,332 respondents in various occupations who are over 18, using quantitative and qualitative research, and net assessment from May 1 through May 5, according to assistant professor Noppadon Kannika, director of the Super Poll Research Office.
He said that 75.3 percent of the approximately 37 million eligible voters plan to cast ballots, according to a Super Poll that analyzed responses from respondents with and without cell phones.
He predicted that no party will win by a wide margin, not even the Pheu Thai party, which previously held the majority of seats in the north-eastern provinces but is only expected to win about 20 seats this time due to the policies of the Move Forward party, which are more in line with the aspirations of young people, which will sway voters from Pheu Thai.
According to the survey, the Pheu Thai party is predicted to gain 139 House seats—111 from constituencies and 28 from party lists. A minimum of 114 seats and a maximum of 164 seats are available.
The Bhumjaithai party, which is anticipated to win 112 seats, broken down into 96 constituency seats and 16 party-list seats, will come in second. A minimum of 87 seats and a maximum of 137 seats are available.
The Move Forward party, which is anticipated to gain 63 House seats—40 from constituencies and 23 from party lists—will come in third place. 38 seats are the minimum and 88 seats are the maximum.
The Palang Pracharath party, which is now in fourth place, is predicted to gain 53 House seats, composed of 53 constituency seats and 8 party-list seats. A minimum of 36 seats and a maximum of 86 seats are available.
The Democrat party comes in fifth place and is predicted to gain 49 House seats, consisting of 44 constituency seats and 5 party-list seats. There are 24 seats in the minimum and 74 seats in the maximum.
The United Thai Nation party, which is now in sixth place, is predicted to gain 46 House seats, consisting of 35 constituency seats and 11 party-list seats. A minimum of 21 seats and a maximum of 71 seats are available.
The other parties, who are predicted to win 30 House seats—21 from constituencies and 9 from party lists—are in seventh position. The range is 5 seats at the lowest and 55 seats at the most.
Pita Limjaroenrat of the Move Forward party and Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai party, according to Noppadon, are neck-in-neck for the position of prime minister, but 30% of survey respondents said they were willing to modify their minds, and 15% said they were unsure.
There are four potential post-election scenarios, according to Harvard University lecturer and scholar Kriengsak Chareonwongsak.
He said, however, that it will depend on how the party is able to persuade voters to support them in the final week of campaigning. The first is that the conservative camp will form the government with their 126 House seats plus the support of 250 senators.
According to Kriengsak, who ruled out the idea of the Pheu Thai party forming a one-party government, the second scenario is that the party will be the main player in forming a government of the progressive camp.
He added that the Move Forward party might want too many ministerial portfolios, making it challenging for Pheu Thai to work with them to build a coalition government.
The fourth possibility sees neither the conservative nor the progressive camps able to form a government, leading to turmoil and potentially military intervention. The third scenario involves some parties being disbanded before or after the election.
Kriengsak cautioned that no party should attempt to win in a landslide in order to prevent the third and fourth eventualities.
