On the results of recent nationwide polls of eligible voters, the analysis was built.
Pheu Thai stands a fair chance of gaining 194 MP seats, and in the struggle for 84 seats that are fiercely contested, it may win even more.
In the race for 400 constituency MP seats, the Bhumjaithai Party, a part of the outgoing ruling coalition, is predicted to finish second, with a high chance of capturing 58 seats and a close race for 44 more.
The Democrat Party, Thailand’s oldest political party, is expected to come in third place and has a solid chance of obtaining 51 members in the House of Representatives while also hoping to win five more.
On Friday, The Nation Group published an analysis of national election polls for the first time. The media organization’s editors and regional reporters from all throughout the nation conducted the analysis.
The forecasts were based on the findings of polls that were conducted door-to-door across the nation among qualified voters.A team of researchers led by Asst. Prof. Chettha Subyen, assistant to the president of Navamindradhiraj University and director of Nation Poll, carefully selected the statistical samples and examined the findings.
The Nation Group and a group of academic scholars collaborated on the “Road to the Future: Election 2023” project, which included this.
The 100 MP seats on party lists are not included in the research.
Voters will be given two ballots at the upcoming election on May 14: one for choosing the MP for their constituency and the other for their preferred political party.
With the exception of the South, where the party is anticipated to lose in every seat it runs for, Pheu Thai is likely to prevail across the majority of the country.
As many as 100 of the 133 MP seats up for election in the Northeast, Thailand’s most populous region, are likely to go to the party, which is attempting to retake control after eight years in opposition.
In the South, the Democrat Party’s historical heartland, it is anticipated that it will win the majority of the 60 MP seats available for election, maybe as many as 37.
With a likelihood of winning 26 MP seats and a tight race for 38 more, the ruling Palang Pracharath Party is in for a letdown. The number would represent a significant drop from the 116 seats it obtained in the prior election in March 2019.
The United Thai Nation Party, which has been around for a year and has nominated Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as its candidate for prime minister, is anticipated to do well in the race for 21 constituency MP seats while competing fiercely for 23 more.
The second-largest opposition party, the Move Forward Party, is vying for 22 additional seats and stands a decent chance of capturing 25 from constituencies.
Chart Thai Pattana (winning 9 and competing for 3 additional seats), Prachachat (6 and 4), Chart Pattana Kla (4 and 2), and Thai Sang Thai (2 and 3) are other parties anticipated to gain seats as MPs for constituency.
Pheu Thai has a high possibility of winning as many as 14 seats in Bangkok, where 33 MP seats are up for election, and is running close for an additional 9 seats. Next is Move Forward, which has a chance to win 10 seats and compete for an additional 9 seats.
The two parties each won nine seats in the previous election for the capital’s 30 seats, with Palang Pracharath taking the remaining twelve.
The Democrats are the front-runners for 5 seats and are vying for 2 more. They are followed by Palang Pracharath (1 and 1), Thai Sang Thai (2 and 2), and United Thai Nation (1 and 3).
The outcome would be better for the Democrats, who in the previous election did not win any MP seats in Bangkok, their longtime bastion. Palang Pracharath would suffer a serious setback as a result.
