Although the Move Forward Party won the election, its chances of forming a government may be hampered by the military-appointed Senate and the ambitions of the former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
The appearance of Pita Limjaroenrat, the opposition politician who led his party to a shock win over the military-backed factions that had controlled Thai politics for almost ten years, sparked thunderous cheers from the thousands of people in central Bangkok.
The affable 42-year-old entrepreneur smiled and waved as he led a brief victory march on Monday from Bangkok’s Democracy Monument to a plaza in front of the capital’s Metropolitan Administration Office, declaring a “new day, bright with hope” for Thailand.When we all work together, anything is possible in our nation, he told a sea of fans wearing his Move Forward Party’s distinctive orange clothing.
“Pita Limjaroenrat will be the next prime minister of Thailand, and together, we will soon change this nation,”
Move Forward was deemed the overall winner of the general election held on Sunday by the Elections Commission hours earlier. After running on an audacious platform of reforms to the monarchy and the military, the progressive party, which was running in its first election, won 151 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.
Pheu Thai, a populist opposition party, finished second with 141 seats. Now, the two parties have concurred to launch coalition negotiations. However, despite their astounding majority, it is still unknown whether the royalist-military elite, who have orchestrated two coups in the last 20 years, will cede control without a fight.To get to the Government House in Bangkok, Move Forward must navigate a number of obstacles.
The most notable of these are the legislative regulations that give the military-appointed Senate a disproportionate influence in selecting the next prime minister. However, Move Forward’s possible coalition partner, Pheu Thai, may still face challenges due to its ambitions.
tough times
Analysts predict a protracted process that may come to a standstill and express concern that it might lead to further unrest in a nation that has previously experienced coups followed by waves of protests, perhaps opening the door for the military to intervene once again.Punchada Sirivunnabood, an associate professor of social sciences and humanities at Bangkok’s Mahidol University, warned that if Move Forward is unable to form a government, party breakup and perhaps a military takeover could result.
Thailand is in for some difficult days. It is my sincere wish that the process of establishing a new administration would be trouble-free and without confrontation. This cycle of protests, coups, and protests has grown quite tiresome for everyone.
There is cause for worry.
Already, a number of senators have stated they would oppose a coalition led by Move Forward. Any contender for the top position must have 376 votes from the combined chambers, and the 250-member upper chamber, which was appointed during military rule, is permitted to vote on the prime minister. They must have that many votes from the lower chamber alone if they want to overrule the Senate.
But as of right now, Move Forward appears to have a best-case scenario of 310 votes.
The party’s promise to amend laws pertaining to the monarchy, an institution valued in Thailand’s constitution, is what the Senate finds most objectionable. The plans call for changing Article 112, Thailand’s severe lese-majeste statute, which imposes a maximum 15-year prison sentence for insults to the monarchy. Observing that at least 242 members of a sizable youth-led protest movement that supported the party in Sunday’s elections are currently facing prosecution, Move Forward has accused the existing government coalition of manipulating the law to repress dissent.
Only fifteen years old is the youngest of them.
The monarchy will be impacted by Move Forward and Mr. Pita’s previous announcement to repeal Article 112. Senator Jadet Insawang stated in an interview with the Bangkok Post, “This is unacceptable. Because I will uphold the constitution and follow my pledge, he continued, “If Mr. Pita is nominated [for prime minister], I will refuse it.There are still two months for Move Forward to get the funding it requires.
After the Elections Commission has formally certified the election results, the vote for prime minister is anticipated to take place in late July or early August.
Napon Jatsuripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said that if they don’t reach 376, the negotiations will come to a standstill. “There is a chance that there may be multiple rounds of voting when the candidates for speaker of the house and prime minister are chosen in two months. The Constitution also states that there is no time limit on the procedure.
‘Other possibilities’ for Pheu Thai
If negotiations come to a halt, Pheu Thai may take the initiative in trying to establish a government without the assistance of Move Forward.
The populist party declared during the election campaign that it would not touch Article 112. This party, along with its predecessors, has won every election since 2001. Many perceived the attitude as an effort to mend relations with the royalist-military establishment after it had been stymied in its attempts to rule the Southeast Asian nation for nearly two decades.
Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the party’s founder, was deposed in 2006 in a military takeover that was widely believed to have palace support. In 2014, the army also overthrew the administration of his sister, Yingluck. They were both given prison sentences for what they allege are politically motivated charges, and they now both reside in exile.
Pre-election polls had Pheu Thai leading Move Forward, but experts claim that Pheu Thai lost support because of its position on Article 112 and because it took too long to deny rumors of a partnership with royalist-military groups. All but one of Bangkok’s 33 seats as well as seven of the ten seats in the northern Chiang Mai province went to Move Forward in the end. These regions had previously been seen as Pheu Thai strongholds.
“Pheu Thai is not the same as the Move Forward Party. It also has other choices. The Palang Pacharat, led by the former general Prawit Wongsuwan, is one of those groups, and forming a coalition with them is one of the choices, according to Napon. In the election held on Sunday, the Palang Pracharat Party came in first with 40 seats, and their potential coalition partners might include the Bhumjaithai Party (71 seats) and the Chart Thai Pattana Party (10 seats).
“Anyway, none of these gatherings would total 376. However, they could be able to win over the Senate, since General Prawit would probably be able to persuade several senators because he had a hand in their initial appointment, he added.
Given that many of Pheu Thai’s supporters despise Prawit and the military, such a move by the party would be dangerous. In addition, Pheu Thai, which is currently run by Thaksin’s 36-year-old daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, declared following Sunday’s vote that it has accepted Move Forward’s request to “create a democratic alliance”. The statement continued, “We have no intention of challenging Move Forward to form a new government.”
Return of Thaksin
Even still, several observers were dubious, particularly in light of Thaksin’s announced wish to return to Thailand in July.
The 71-year-old, who has lived in exile for 17 years, appeared to request the king’s approval to return shortly before the election in a tweet, claiming he was growing older and yearned to be with his family.
Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political science professor at the Ubon Ratchathani University in eastern Thailand, stated that “a lot depends on Thaksin’s determination to return to the country.” “In such case, Pheu Thai and Thaksin would want to run the government. However, they will actually have less negotiating influence if they join a coalition led by Move Forward. They can only reclaim that by working with the current military-led parties, such Palang Pracharat.
Although Titipol claimed he did not feel “too optimistic” about the process of forming a government, he was nevertheless encouraged by the broad support for Move Forward.
The party won the popular vote in addition to the most seats that were directly elected. The Move Forward received 14.3 million of the 39 million votes cast in the countrywide election for party-list seats on Sunday.
Pheu Thai, in contrast, received 10.9 million votes.
Even in places where its local candidates for seats were defeated by parties with ties to the military, Move Forward won the popular vote. For instance, Move Forward won the popular vote in Buri Ram province in the northeast, where Bhumjaithai won all 10 seats up for direct election. The Nation newspaper said that it received 238,341 votes compared to Bhumjaithai’s 168,209 votes.
Titipol declared that “this is a significant turning point for Thailand” and cautioned that any attempt by Pheu Thai or the Senate to overthrow an MFP-led government would be dangerous.
According to him, Pheu Thai would jeopardize the country’s “entire future in politics” and any attempt by the Senate to overturn the vote of the people would result in widespread unrest, especially among the younger generation.
“It’s also not easy for the military to stage a coup this time, because they can see that the energy and power of the supporters of Move Forward is rather different,” the man added.
Move Forward looks to be convinced that it can use its ground-breaking victory to gain power.
Pita responded to questions from reporters on Monday by saying he was “not worried” about actions taken against him or the party.
But I’m not reckless, he added. In light of the election’s consensus, he said, “There would be quite a hefty price to pay for someone who is thinking of abolishing the election result, or forming a minority government.”
And I believe that Thailand’s populace would prevent such from happening.
